Today we take analyse a match from the Third Round at Wimbledon, it’s on the Women’s side and the match between Latvian world number 13, Jelena Ostapenko and Italian world number 86, Camila Giorgi.

Previous Meetings

These two have met once before, back in 2016 on the hard courts of Katowice, Poland and it was Giorgi who was victorious on that occasion, 6-4 6-3.

Ostapenko’s only lead-up tournament prior to this week was in Eastbourne, where she lost a close match that she definitely should have won against Jo Konta, 5-7– 6-3 4-6.

Giorgi played in Hertogenbosch where she lost to Witthoeft in Round 2, 6-7 3-6. She then went on to qualify for the event in Birmingham, where she won five matches in total before having to retire through injury against Ashleigh Barty in the Quarter Finals.

Both players have an 80% win rate on the grass this year, so we should be in for a cracker here!

Wimbledon Results So Far

Ostapenko has struggled in her two opening matches, with them both going the distance. She beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich in Round 1, 6-0 1-6 6-3, before surviving an almighty scare against Francoise Abanda in Round 2. Ostapenko dropped the first set 4-6 and was 1-3 down in the second set tiebreak before recovering to take it 7-4. The deciding set was equally as challenging for the Latvian, as she lost her serve in the opening game, she did however fight back and broke in games four and eight to take the set and match 6-3.

Giorgi has also played two matches that have gone to three sets this week, she started off by beating Alize Cornet 5-7 6-4 6-4, before beating American, Madison Keys 6-4 6-7 6-1 in a match that the Itlalian served for in set two, when ahead 5-4 but ultimately took with relative ease, winning the decider 6-1.

So with twelve sets being played between these two already this week, it would take a brave man to suggest that we won’t get another three-setter today.

Serving Stats

Ostapenko’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; she’s won 56% of her service points and held serve 62% of the time.

Giorgi’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; she’s won 62% of her service points and held serve 80% of the time.

Ostapenko’s serve is the weakest part of her game, both her first and second serves can be exploited by aggressive returners, which Giorgi is. I’m expecting the Latvian to be broken in each set today.

Giorgi’s serve is pretty strong, especially when she is hitting the spots with that big first delivery. At times she can also have her second serve jumped on by aggressive returners, however with generally a more consistent and bigger serve than the Latvian, she should find it easier to hold today.

Returning Stats

Ostapenko’s recent grass court mean returning stats this week look like this, she’s won 47% of his return points, 49% of her break points and opponents have held 58% of the time against her.

Giorgi’s recent grass court mean returning stats this week look like this, she’s won 43% of her return points, 45% of her break points and opponents have held 67% of the time against her.

Both return very aggressively off both wings, Ostapenko is certainly the more consistent, and if Giorgi’s first serve % isn’t high today she will certainly create break point opportunities. Giorgi on the other hand should get a good look at the Latvian’s serve today and if she can find a decent level of consistency off the return and keep her break point conversion % high, she will be very dangerous.

Groundstrokes

Both women have similar game-styles off the ground, hit everything hard and go for winners off both wings. Ostapenko will generally play with more width, as she looks to drive the ball hard and flat into the corners, Giorgi will do the same, however she will also look to trade hard, deep strokes up the middle of the court also. Both are pure baseliners, and won’t be venturing into the net too often, both are also poor defenders and i can see this match being a case of whoever gets the first strike in will win the point.

Summary

This has the potential to be one the most exciting matches of the women’s tournament so far, both women will flash plenty of winners past the other today and as i mentioned above, I can see it coming down to whoever takes the ball on first in the point will win, a majority of the time.

If Ostapenko serves a high % of first serves and hits with the consistency that won her the French Open, she should win this. However, if Giorgi is returning well and finding a rhythm off the ground she could quite easily cause an upset here. I’m expecting a good match, and three sets is likely.