- Betfair Trading Grass Court Tennis - May 29, 2018
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- Munich & Istanbul ATP Tour Match Previews - May 5, 2018
Another clean sweep yesterday as Jaziri beat an injured (looked like a pectoral strain) Jiri Vesely in 3 sets and Tiafoe defeated the resilient Simone Bolelli in straight sets.
Onto today and we look at a couple of Semi-Final matches, one from Munich and the other from Istanbul.
Zverev vs Chung – Munich ATP
These two have met twice before, with Chung winning on both occasions, including once on the clay in Barcelona last year.
Zverev has beaten two German’s ion his way to the Semi Finals, he struggled past Hanfmann in Round 2 and then defeated Struff in the Quarters yesterday. Chung is yet to drop a set and has looked really solid in beating Bachinger and Klizan so far.
Looking at the tournament stats so far, Zverev has won 68% of his points on serve and held 88% of the time. Chung has won 72% of his points on serve and has held 94% of the time.
In terms of the return of serve, Zverev has won 45% of his return points and converted 43% of his break point chances. Chung has won 49% of his return points and converted 56% of his break point chances.
Given these stats, the head to head record and the fact that Chung is a really bad matchup for Zverev, who tends to struggle against counter-punches who can exploit his sometimes inconsistent forehand side and force him into going for too much, I think the Korean stands a really good chance of causing an upset here.
I’m surprised to see Chung as such a heavy underdog here, and I expect him to take at least a set, if not win the match.
Jaziri vs Djere – Istanbul ATP
These two have met once before, on a fast hard court in Mexico back in 2016, with Djere winning in 3 sets. A lot has changed since then though, and Jaziri is looking like a really solid player at ATP level now, whilst Djere before this week has won just 1 match all season.
Jaziri has beaten Ilhan, Cilic and Vesely in reaching the Semi’s, whilst Djere has claimed some impressive scalps on his route through, defeating Istomin, Seppi and Lorenzi.
Jaziri has won 68% of his service points and held serve 83% of the time this week, against Djere’s numbers of 66% and 85%.
As far as the return of serve is concerned, Jaziri has won 48% of his return points and converted 56% of break point opportunities, against Djere’s 37% and 46%.
Even given Djere’s good form this week, Jaziri shouldn’t lose this one. He is better in all areas than the Serb, and his ability to be more aggressive off the ground and win more free points off his serve should be the difference. I can see the Tunisian breaking the Djere serve on at least 1 occasion in each set, and if he can keep his break point conversion % as high as it currently is for the tournament, I can see it being a tough day at the office for Djere.
I expected to see Jaziri quite a bit shorter in the betting than he is, and at this current price I think he is some real value to win this.
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