Match Preview Muguruza vs V.Williams 15.07 Wimbledon 2017

Wimbledon, London, UK, Grass Courts, WTA

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Previous Meetings

These two have met four times, with Williams winning on three ocassions, all of her wins have come on hard courts between 2013 and 2015. Muguruza’s sole win was the most recent though, and came on the clay in Rome just a couple of months ago.

Muguruza’s Wimbledon Results So Far…

R1: Defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2 6-4

R2: Defeated Yanina Wickmayer 6-2 6-4

R3: Defeated Sorana Cirstea 6-2 6-2

R4: Defeated Angelique Kerber 4-6 6-4 6-4

QF: Defeated Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-3 6-4

SF: Defeated Magdalena Rybarikova 6-1 6-1

Muguruza is playing the tennis of her life, and looks every bit back to her Roland Garros winning best. The Spaniard was Runner Up here in 2015 and she’ll be looking to go one better today. She has been serving and moving extremely well this week, her groundstrokes have really been penetrating through the court, giving her opponents no time on the ball and if she can put all of this together today, Williams will be in for a tough afternoon.

V.William’s Wimbledon Results So Far…

R1: Defeated Elise Mertens 7-6 6-4

R2: Defeated Qiang Wang 4-6 6-4 6-1

R3: Defeated Naomi Osaka 7-6 6-4

R4: Defeated Ana Konjuh 6-3 6-2

QF: Defeated Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 7-5

SF: Defeated Johanna Konta 6-4 602

Venus Williams, at 37 years young also appears to be playing the tennis of her life, she has gotten better and better with each match she’s played this fortnight, and in her Quarter and Semi Final’s looked a far cry from the player whom looked like she might trip up in Rounds two and three. Williams is serving superbly and her groundstrokes are being hit with power and precision, her movement is good however it is certainly exploitable, so look out for this today.

Muguruza’s Wimbledon Mean Serving Stats

Won 66% of her service points

Held serve 94% of the time

Muguruza’s serve is certainly a weapon, she will win plenty of free points off her first delivery today. Her second serve win % for the Championships is up at an impressive 56%, so even when missing her first delivery, she still stands in good stead.

V.William’s Wimbledon Mean Serving Stats

Won 71% of her service points

Held serve 93% of the time

We all know that V.William’s serve is probably her biggest asset, she will likely be leading the ace count today, and will win a majority of free points off her first serve. She will need to keep a high first serve % today, as her second serve can at times can be open to attack.

Muguruza’s Wimbledon Mean Returning Stats

Won 45% of her return points

Won 45% of her break points

Opponents have held 61% of the time against her

Muguruza will look to go after the Williams second serve aggressively, as she is unlikely to win many points off the American’s first delivery. The Spaniard will attack off both wings, hitting the ball hard and flat cross-court. She will however need to increase that break point conversion % today, as she’s unlikely to get many chances on the Williams serve, so needs to make them count when/if they do arrive.

V.William’s Wimbledon Mean Returning Stats

Won 43% of her return points

Won 38% of her break points

Opponents have held 71% of the time against her

Williams, like Muguruza will go after any short second serve, the American is the weaker returner of the two players, partly because her backswing is so long that she finds it difficult to time the ball on the quicker surfaces. Williams too, will need to increase her break point conversion % drastically from 38% if she is going to break the Muguruza serve.

Muguruza’s Groundstrokes

The Spaniard will hit the ball hard and flat off both sides, she will play with controlled aggression and look to play with plenty of width. She will play from the baseline and only look to move forward when she has dragged the American very wide and out of position. Muguruza’s movement is one of her biggest assets, as is her ability to defend, these alone could well be the difference today. We know Williams is going to try and get the first hit in during the rallies, but if Muguruza can keep getting the ball back into play with interest, then she can force mistakes out of the American.

V.William’s Groundstrokes

Williams will also hit the ball hard and flat off both sides. She will look to get her forehand into play where she can, and will often hit deep balls straight down the middle of the court to Muguruza’s feet. The American will also play a majority of her tennis from the baseline and will look to step forward and take on anything left remotely short. Her movement and ability to defend is the weakest element of her game, and if Muguruza can get her running from side to side and defending, then Williams may struggle.

Summary

A really tough one to call, this should be very close. If pushed, I would say that Muguruza’s superior movement and ability to defend might just give her the edge today. Williams must serve well, keep the ball deep and the unforced errors to a premium, if she can do this and Muguruza is not playing at 100%, then the American will probably take the title. Don’t be surprised to see three sets today in what should be a very entertaining match.