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Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

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Hey all,

A new week brings new tournaments, and today’s focus is on the match between German world number 62, Tatjana Maria and Spanish world number 147, Georgina Garcia-Perez.

This is a Round 1 encounter on the clay courts of Bogata, Colombia, where WTA tennis has been being played since 1998. This is a WTA International tournament, so effectively a Tier 2/3 event but with a strong-ish looking field of players this week i’m expecting to see some solid tennis played.

The defending champion is Francesca Schiavone, but she is not here to defend her crown this week. Tatjana Maria, who we will be taking a look at today, is the number one seed, with Riske, Larsson and Bogdan the other players who look of interest to me.

Previous Meetings

These two have never met before, but both played on the clay in Charleston last week. 

Maria lost in 3 sets in the Second Round to Ash Barty, having beaten Lauren Davis in straight sets in Round 1.

Garcia-Perez lost in the First Round to Romanian Irina Begu in straight sets, 6-3 6-4.

Maria’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats 

Won 56% of her service points

Held serve 63% of the time

Maria has a good serve, she will hit her first serve predominantly with slice and look to get it moving away from the right hander. She also likes the serve down the ‘T’ on the deuce side, so look out for that today.

Garcia-Perez’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats 

Won 58% of his service points

Held serve 70% of the time

The Spaniard has a big serve, it’s probably her main weapon and her first delivery is usually a hard, flat bomb that she can hit practically anywhere she wants, of course being 6ft 1 helps. She also has a useful second serve that she can kick up high and be awkward to return.

Maria’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats

Won 41% of her return points

Won 43% of her break points

Opponents have held 69% of the time against her

Maria will make a lot of balls off the return, she will stand deep in the court to return first serves, and will step up and attack off her forehand on the second serve.

Garcia Perez’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats

Won 46% of her return points

Won 46% of her break points

Opponents have held 60% of the time against her

Garcia-Perez also has a good return game, she will stand up on the baseline slightly more than Maria, and will look to return with interest off either wing. Expect her to make plenty of balls back into play also.

Maria’s Groundstrokes

The German will look to get her forehand into play as much as possible, as that’s her stronger wing. Her backhand will be hit with slice, as she looks to keep the ball low and make it difficult for her tall, Spanish opponent today. Maria will happily trade from the back of the court, but is an adept volleyer at the net, as her doubles record shows.

Garcia Perez’s Groundstrokes

The Spaniard will look to keep the ball deep, and where possible attack. She is equally adept of off both sides, and she does is not afraid to get her double-handed backhand into play. She is not always the best defender, and her movement is something that may be exposed today, so look out for this.

Summary

I fancy Tatjana Maria just to have a bit too much court craft for her Spanish opponent today. I was surprised to see Maria as the underdog, and at her odds I feel like she’s some value. Should be a fun watch this one.