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Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

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It’s middle Sunday at WImbledon (SW19), meaning there is no play today as those players who have reached the hallowed second week get a well-earned rest. There has however been another tournament taking place whilst our focus has firmly been on SW19, the Guzzini Challenger. This tournament played on the hard courts of Recanti, Italy has been part of the Challenger Tour circuit since 2009, previous winners include Simone Bolelli (2012), Thomas Fabbiano (2013), Giles Muller (2014) and Ilya Marchenko (2016), all of whom have been playing in this years Wimbledon main draw.

However, today is Final’s day in Recanti and we are going to be picking the bones out of an interesting looking match between 2015 winner here, Bosnian world number 163, Mirza Basic and Croatian world number 491, Viktor Galovic.

Previous Meetings

These two have met once before, back in 2012 on the clay courts of Parma, Italy, Galovic was the winner that day, 6-4 1-6 6-4.

Both play very well on hard courts, and have winning record this season on the surface. Basic has won 74% of his matches, with Galovic winning 82% of his.

Guzzini Challenger Results So Far…

Basic beat Julian Ocleppo in Round 1, 3-6 6-3 6-1, before defeating dangerous Frenchman Maxime Hamou 6-4 6-2 in the Second Round. The Bosnian’s Quarter Final proved as tricky-an encounter as it looked on paper against Adrian Menendez-Maceiras, with Basic once again having to fight back from a set down to eventually win through, 3-6 6-3 6-3. Yesterday’s Semi Final pitted the Bosnian against the home favourite, Luca Vanni, and having lost the first set again, Basic won the next two to win through 6-7 7-6 7-6 in over three hours.

Galovic beat Italian, Edoardo Eremin in Round 1, 6-7 6-3 6-2, before overcoming another Italian, Andrea Vavassori 6-1 6-3 in Round 2. Glovic took on the much fancied Quetin Halys in the Quarter Final, and the Croat again lost the first set on a tiebreak before taking the next two sets 7-5 6-4 to advance through to yesterday’s Semi Final. Galovic faced yet another Italian in the Semi’s, Salvatore Caruso, however Caruso couldn’t break the Galovic serve the whole match and the Croat won through pretty easily in the end, 6-3 6-3.

Serving Stats

Basic’s serving stats this week look like this; he’s won 68% of his service points and held serve 87% of the time.

Galovic’s serving stats this week look like this; he’s won 69% of his service points and held serve 91% of the time.

Both of these players have big serves, and will fire down plenty of aces today. So far this week Basic is serving 0.6 aces per match with Basic serving 0.7 aces per service game. I don’t expect to see many, if any breaks of serve today.

Returning Stats

Basic’s returning stats this week look like this, he’s won 39% of his return points, 34% of his break points and opponents have held 74% of the time against him.

Gaolvic’s returning stats this week look like this, he’s won 37% of his return points, 60% of his break points and opponents have held 69% of the time against him.

Basic returns serve well off the forehand, however really struggles when serves are hit with pace to his backhand side, something that they will be with regularity today, especially on the deuce side. I think this could be a crucial element today.

Galovic’s aggressive returns and ability to convert a higher % of break point opportunities could well be the difference today, assuming he can keep these numbers high.

Groundstrokes

Both are solid hitters off both wings, with both favouring their forehand sides. Neither player will be venturing into the net much, instead preferring to trade blows from the baseline. Both will be more comfortable when attacking rather than defending, i think today could well be a case of whoever can land the first forehand blow in the rally will likely win it. If Galovic can get his big forehand into play first then i massively favour him, however Basic’s more patience and consistency should give him the edge in longer rallies.

Summary

This should be a pretty close match with few, if any breaks of serve and don’t be surprised to see at least one tiebreak set. I’m actually going to edge towards Galovic to win this, he’s been playing great tennis this week, and his big serve (to the Basic backhand) and forehand should cause Basic plenty of problems today. The Bosnian will need to serve a high % of first serves and look to get the first strike in the rally in order to win this, something which he is very capable of, i’m just not sure he’ll be given the opportunity to often enough today.