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Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

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It’s Sunday, and it’s Final’s day at the Ciiti Di Caltanissetta  in Caltanissetta, Italy. The Final match of this year’s tournament is going to be contested by last year’s winner and Italian world number 36, Paolo Lorenzi and another Italian, world number 118, Alessandro Giannessi.

Previous Meetings:

These two have met once before on clay, and it was in fact at the Semi Final’s stage at this tournament last year, with Lorenzi winning a tight match 6-4 7-5. Looking at the players other clay court achievements this season, Lorenzi had a run to the Semi Final’s in Budapest this year, losing out to Lucas Pouille 2-6 5-7, whilst Giannessi’s best showing was a run to the Final of a Challenger in Francavilla, Italy, where he lost out to Pedro Sousa 3-6 6-7. Both players favourite surface is the dirt, so both will be very at home today in front of a home crowd.

Ciiti Di Caltanissetta Results So Far…

Lorenzi beat Marcelo Arevalo in straight sets in Round 1, then head to come from a set behind to defeat Laslo Djere in Round 2, having dropped the first 6-7, the Italian took the next two 6-3 6-2 to win in just over three hours. In the Quarter Finals Lorenzi was involved in another three setter, this time edging past Guido Andreozzi, 6-2 3-6 6-4. The Semi’s was slightly more straight forward for the Italian, as he brushed aside the Romanian, Radu Albot 6-4 6-4.

Giannessi beat Enrique Lopez-Perez in Round 1, 7-5 7-5, before breezing past Inigo Cervantes in Round 2 in just over an hour 6-2 6-3. Giannessi’s toughest test to date was against the world number 126, Mikhail Kukushkin, the Italian won the first set 6-4, before losing the second 1-6, Kukushkin fell apart in the decider though and Giannessi took it 6-1 in half an hour. The Semi Final’s drew the Italian against the returning German, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Giannessi won in straight sets 6-3 7-6, with Stebe struggling with a back injury throughout.

Serving Stats:

Lorenzi this week has won 61% of his service points and held serve 74% of the time. These compare to his recent clay court mean numbers of 63% service points won and 79% service hold.

Giannessi this week has won 65% of his service points and held serve 81% of the time. These compare to his recent clay court mean numbers of 62% service points won and 76% service hold.

Both players have ‘functional’ serves, with neither player considering it a weapon. Don’t be surprised to see a few breaks of serve today, especially as Giannessi is carrying a slight shoulder injury, so is struggling to generate full power.

Returning Stats:

Lorenzi this week has won 49% of his return points, 52% of his break point chances and his opponent held serve 51% of the time. These compare to his recent clay court mean numbers of 39% return points won, 42% break points won and 74% opponent hold.

Giannessi this week has won 45% of his return points, 52% of his break point chances and his opponent held serve 61% of the time. These compare to his recent clay court mean numbers of 41% return points won, 40% break points won and 70% opponent hold.

Both players return serve pretty well, they will get plenty of balls back into play off both first and second serves, with Lorenzi specifically returning the ball deep, especially off the forehand side.

Groundstrokes:

Both players will grind from the back of the court, both are typical clay courters and will look to manipulate their opponent from side to side before counter-punching into the open space. Giannessi will hit most of his balls with huge amounts of topspin, meaning Lorenzi will be playing a lot of balls at shoulder-height, Giannessi will hit most of his winners off the forehand side today. Lorenzi will hit with consistency and depth, but do look out for some drop shots, which he likes to play against players who stand deep beyond the baseline. Lorenzi also will hit most of his winners off the forehand side. Expect plenty of long and exhausting rallies.

Summary:

I can’t look beyond Lorenzi here. Both players play with a similar style, however Lorenzi is the more consistent of the two, he also has the ability to hit through the court better when turning defence into attack. If Giannessi is hitting his forehand aggressively and his shoulder holds up then he could take this to three sets, but i’m siding with Lorenzi in two.