Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 20th June 2018)

2018 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

ROYAL ASCOT continues on Wednesday 20th June with another bumper six-race card to look forward too that includes the Jersey and Queen Mary Stakes, but the clear highlight on DAY TWO is the Group One Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – did you know 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old?

More Royal Ascot 2018 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2018 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2018 Royal Ascot
  • 2018 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2018 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

So, like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f

Queen Mary Recent Winners

2017 – Heartache (5/1)
2016 – Lady Aurelia (2/1 fav)
2015 – Acapulco (5/2 fav)
2014 – Anthem Alexander (9/4 fav)
2013 – Rizeena (6/1)
2012 – Ceiling Kitty (20/1)
2011 – Best Terms (12/1)
2010 – Maqaasid (9/4 fav)
2009 – Jealous Again (13/2)
2008 – Langs Lash (25/1)
2007 – Elletelle (20/1)
2006 – Gilded (11/2)
2005 – Flashy Wings (4/1 jfav)
2004 – Damson (11/2 jfav)
2003 – Attraction (13/8 fav)
2002 – Romantic Liason (16/1)

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

15/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/16 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
14/16 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
14/16 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
13/16 – Won their previous race
11/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
3/16 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including 2 of last 3 runnings)
2/16 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The word on the street is that the popular US trainer Wesley Ward has another speedball coming over for this race, with Chelsea Cloisters the horse in question. It’s a race the yard knows how to win too, having landed the pot in 2009, 2015 and 2016, but it is worth pointing out they did have a well-fancied hotpot turned over in this 12 months ago. It goes without saying it’s hard to translate the US form to over here but this 2 year-old filly was an easy 8 length winner on debut at Keenland back in April and with Frankie booked to ride is clearly thought good enough to take this. That also came over 4 ½ furlongs but she broke quickly and made all so we can expect more of the same here – she might be hard to catch, especially if she’s anywhere near the level of the yard’s 2016 winner – Lady Aurelia. Those against her will look to the likes of Aidan O’Brien, who has a 29% record with his 2 year-olds at the track. O’Brien has So Perfectentered and having only had two career runs should have more to come, plus the recent Navan scorer Gossamer Wings. However, it was the Clive Cox camp that toppled Wesley Ward’s bid to win this race 12 months ago and in SHADES OF BLUE he looks to have another 2 year-old that can possibly repeat the feat. She went into many a notebook on debut when winning very well here over course and distance so surely that track experience is a big plus too. She travelled well in behind the pack that day but when the gap came in the final furlong showed a decent turn of foot to win going away by 1 ¼ lengths. The second – Queen Of Bermuda – has since franked the form by winning twice since so that victory was made to look even better. Connections have clearly had this race in mind since and avoided the temptation to run her in between – opting, instead, to keep her fresh with a 40 day break. The French raider, Forever In Dreams is 2-from-2 and won’t be coming over for a day trip. Recent winners Kodyanna and Kurious are others that have caught the eye in their recent runs, while the Jessie Harrington-trained Servalan was a good Listed winner at Naas last time and that sets a fair standard if she’s able to translate that 6f form back down to 5f.

 

3.05 – Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m

Queen´s Vase Recent Winners

2017 – Stradivarius (11/2)
2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

13/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/15 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
11/15 – Placed last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
6/15 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
5/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 12 runnings (3 wins)
11 of the last 12 winners came from a single-figure stall
5 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With trainers Aidan O’Brien (5) & Mark Johnston (5) winning 10 of the last 15 runnings of this race then it’s hard to ignore their chances again this year. The John Gosden camp will be hoping to spoil the party with their recent Ascot winner – STREAM OF STARS.Yes, this is a big step up in grade from that Class 3 maiden win but the horse is clearly held in high regard and can continue it’s upward progression. Connections clearly feel he’s got more to offer and the step up to 1m6f is likely to also bring out more improvement – they also took the race 12 months ago – plus the horse is a proven course winner, albeit over 1m4f. Frankie Dettori rides. Of the O’Brien runners the 111-rated Nelson and the 108-rated Kew Gardens are big players and based on the official ratings set the standard.Nelson has won three of his last 5 races and his running style suggests there will be more to come over this 1m6f trip and of the O’Brien runners he gets the nod. Kew Gardens was ninth in the Derby so can’t be totally ruled out but was beaten fair and square in the Feilden Stakes earlier this season. They also run Southern France, who has won his last two in fair fashion, including a Listed race at Navan last time. That came over 1m5f so this trip will be fine and being the least exposed of the O’Brien trio could have more improvement to come. Looking at the Johnston runners – Lynwood Gold and King’s Proctor, then both will need to take a step forward here being rated 97 and 95, but with the yard’s excellent record in the race I’d not be shocked if they ran better than their odds suggest – they both look the each-way value in the race. With 9 of the last 10 winners returning 7/1 or shorter it’s generally a race the punters get right though so I’ll be sticking with the John Gosden camp to follow-up their win in the race from 12 months ago.

 

3.40 – The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m

Duke of Cambridge Recent Winners

2017 – Qemah (5/2 fav)
2016 – Usherette (9/4 fav)
2015 – Amazing Maria (25/1)
2014 – Integral (9/4 fav)
2013 – Duntle (10/3)
2012 – Joviality (11/1)
2011 – Lolly For Dolly (11/1)
2010 – Strawberrydaiquiri (9/2)
2009 – Spacious (10/1)
2008 – Sabana Perdida (4/1)
2007 – Nannina (3/1 co-fav)
2006 – Soviet Song (11/8 fav)
2005 – Peeress (14/1)
2004 – Favourable Terms (13/2)

Duke of Cambridge Trends

13/14 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
13/14 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
13/14 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/14 – Had run at Ascot before
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
7/14 – Had won at Ascot before
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/14 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/14 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
2/14 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/14 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 8/1
Only three placed horses (2 winners) from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: HYDRANGEA won the Group One Champion Fillies and Mares here last October over 1m4f so stays much further than this 1m trip, but last season also showed enough pace to win the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. It’s a race trainer Aidan O’Brien hasn’t done that well in over the years, but with course form in the locker she looks very interesting. Yes, she’ll have to give weight away to the others as she’s a Group One winner but is still the highest-rated in the field and gets the nod here. She’ll strip fitter for her return run, when second at the Curragh in May and this meeting would have been a firm target since. Of the rest, trainer Richard Hannon is just 4 from 76 with his older horses at the track so his Billesdon Bessis overlooked. The 112-rated Aljazzi and 110-rated Arabian Hope can’t be ruled out, while Tomyris and Lincoln Rocks are closely-matched after finishing first and second at Lingfield back in May. There could be more to come from the William Haggas runner – Urban Fox – who beat another of today’s runners – Tribute Act – over this course and distance last time. That only came in a handicap though, so it goes without saying more is needed in this higher grade. So, the danger, to the selection can come from WILAMINA.This 5 year-old was a nice winner of a Group Three over the extended mile at Epsom last time and should have more to offer. She was always doing enough that day and looked to have a bit more in the locker than the ½ winning margin suggests. She gets a handy 5lbs from Hydrangea but still has a bit to find based on the ratings, but a certain Frankie Dettori keeps the ride, so he could eke out a bit more of her from the saddle. 

 

4.20 – The Prince of Wales´s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Highland Reel (9/4)
2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 –  Grandera (4/1)

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/16 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
13/16 – Were previous Group 1 winners
13/16 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
13/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
8/16 – Had run at Ascot before
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 9/2
3 of the last 10 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Poet’s Word was a good winner of the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time out and prior to that was second to Hawkbill in the Sheema Classic over in Dubai. Both are solid performers at Group level, while the same can be said for Cliffs Of Moher and Eminent, however, this race is really only about one horse – CRACKSMAN. Ok, he made hard work of winning the Coronation Stakes last time out at Epsom – only getting up in the dying strides to win by a head – but despite winning twice at the Surrey venue and running third in last year’s Derby, I’m still not totally convinced the track suits him. Back here at Ascot, with the long straight and the stiff finish I expect him to be much more at home. He landed the Champion Stakes here over 1m2f last October and in the process slammed Poet’s Word by an easy 7 lengths – it should be more of the same here. Cracksman is rated 130 and that’s a massive 8lbs higher than his nearest rival – Hawkbill – and with those two runs this season he should be heading here in tip-top order as he looks to follow-up trainer John Gosden’s 2014 win in this race – Poet’s Word can follow him home.

 

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m

Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners

2017 – Zhui Feng (25/1)
2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

15/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
10/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 7 of the last 9 runnings)
5/16 – Won their last race
2/16 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
1/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 16.5/1
Overall, high number stalls have dominated in recent years
10 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 9 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 33 runners here so it might be time to get the trusted pin out! Some decent trends to apply to the race though, including 13 of the last 16 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old. Of the 33 runners 24 fit the bill here – but at least we’ve knocked out 10. We’ve seen three winners from stall 33 in the last 9 years so the Joseph Tuite-trained Surrey Hope will be looking to maintain that trend. 7 of the last 9 runnings were, in fact, won by a 4 year-old and with 12 of the last 16 carrying 9-1 or less in weight then these are the two main trends I’m going to focus on. Of the 23 runners left we’ve 19 aged 4 years-old but of those carrying 9-1 or less we are left with 9 – Escobar, Medahim, What’s The Story, Mukalal, Kynren, Keyser Soze, Wahash, Surrey Hope and Seniority. In the last 12 runnings we’ve also seen 10 winners from a double-figure stall – okay, with 33 runners then the bulk of the runners will come from stalls 10 or higher but it’s still something to note. Of the 9 mentioned that are 4 year-olds and carrying 9-1 or less in weight the three that standout for me are SENIORITY, KYNREN and ESCOBAR. The last-named was a good winner last time out at Haydock and a 4lb rise for that victory looks fair. He seems to love the quick ground and has thrived since he joined the David O’Meara yard this season. The horse was also once rated as high as 106 and raced well at higher levels than this so his current mark of 99 still looks decent to me – Martin Harley rides. Seniority would be a Royal winner of the Royal Hunt Cup and this William Haggas runner looks to have a good chance. He’s won his last two in grand fashion and form of his recent win has since ben franked with the second winning at Sandown. He’s up 5lbs for that but is another that will love the quick ground and with only 10 career runs should have more to give. Kynren is another lightly-raced sort with only six career outings but is yet to finish out of the top three from six career runs. He’s up just 3lbs for a recent close second at Ascot but the first two that day pulled clear and the winner has since run well after. Draw 11 will give him options so this consistent sort can get involved again here. Of the rest, Cape Bryon can’t be ignored and only just falls outside the key weight trend by a pound. He’s a proven course and distance winner so we know the track suits. We’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – Zhui Feng – but running of an 8lb higher mark more is needed.

 

5.35 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 –  Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

15/16 – Had at least 1 run already that season
12/16 – Had 4 or more career runs
10/16 – Had won over 7f before
9/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/16 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Had run at Ascot before
6/16 – Horses from stall 8 placed
6/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/16 – Won their previous race
2/16 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
3/16 – Winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 4 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10/1

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Expert Eye was touted as being the next talking horse after easy opening wins last season, including the Group Three Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. However, he’s since flopped and was last seen running down the field in the 2,000 Guineas. Ok, this return back to 7f looks in his favour and this drop in grade mean we can’t totally discount him and horses from stall 8 have been placed in 6 of the last 16 renewals, but he’s not been the most reliable customer recently and I’d prefer to see him back to his best on the track first, rather than guessing if he’s still capable at this sort of level. James Garfield can be expected to be in the mix and was only beaten 4 ½ lengths in the 2,000 Guineas, plus ran well for much of the way in the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes over 6f last time out – running on well that day over 6f to suggest the return to 7f is a big plus. Society Power is a proven course and distance winner here and he’s closely-matched with Emaraaty after that pair finished first and second (separated by a short head) last time at Goodwood. That did come at handicap level though so more is required now into a Group Three, but the horse from stall 11 has finished second in 4 of the last 10 runnings so based on that Society Power has that trend on his side. Trainers Mark Johnston is only 8 from 110 with his 3 year-olds here so his Lake Volta is overlooked, while the same applies to Richard Hannon, who is only 6 from 124 with is age group at the track – he runs Tangled. In contrast, the Martyn Meade yard are 2 from 9 here with their 3 year-olds so their unbeaten WALK IN THE SUN can’t be overlooked. He used to be with the Jeremy Noseda yard, that often does well in this race, so it would have been a target for some time. He’s 2-from-2 over this 7f trip and despite stepping up in grade here has won with plenty in-hand to suggest there is more to come – he looks an interesting contender. The Wesley Ward camp are another yard that do well here with their 3 year-olds (2 from 5) so their HEMP HEMP HURRAY is another to note. He was an easy 12 length winner over 6 ½ furlongs last time in the US and breeding suggests this slightly longer trip will be fine. He’s gone well at this level in his homeland too and could really be anything – he’s hard to ignore and is clearly felt good enough to make the long trip over. The other interesting one for me though is PURSER. This 3 year-old hails from the powerful John Gosden yard and will have Frankie Dettori riding. These factors will make him popular in the betting but he’s still worth having on side. He only seems to ever do enough in his races but is now 4 from 5 over this 7f trip and was a good winner of a Listed race at HQ last time. He’s had a month off since so will be ready to rumble again and looks well worth another crack at this level – his only Group runs resulted in a 4th and 3rd but they were during his 2 year-old campaign and he looks a much stronger and more professional horse this season.

 

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