November Handicap Betting Trends and Tips

November Handicap Stats

Staged at Doncaster racecourse, the November Handicap is run over a distance of 1m4f, and, as the race title suggests, is run every November. The event is always run on the last day of Britain’s flat turf racing season – this year run on Saturday 6th November 2021.

Being first run in 1876 the contest was staged in the early days at Manchester and Pontefract racecourses – it was then transferred to Doncaster in 1964.

The race is always a very competitive betting heat, and one the bookmakers have loved in recent years with the favourites having a very poor recent record.

In terms of stables to note – Trainer John Gosden has been the man to follow – he’s landed the prize six times since 1991 and most recently in 2018 as the race was abandoned in 2019 due to a waterlogged track but returned 12 months ago when the Alan King-trained On To Victory won the race.

Looking at the recent stats horses drawn in stall 9 or higher have a great recent record, but be wary of the market leaders – we’ve only had two winning favourites since 1995!

Here at JUICESTORM, we look at recent winners of the November Handicap, plus highlights some key trends and stats based to apply to the 2021 running.

November Handicap Recent Winners

2020 – On To Victory (10/1)
2019 – Abandoned
2018 – Royal Line (9/1)
2017 – Saunter (6/1)
2016 – Prize Money (4/1)
2015 – Litigant (10/1)
2014 – Open Eagle (15/2 fav)
2013 – Conduct (8/1)
2012 – Art Scholar (20/1)
2011 – Zuider Zee (8/1)
2010 – Times Up (14/1)
2009 – Charm School (17/2)
2008 – Tropical Strait (20/1)
2007 – Malt or Mash (5/1)
2006 – Group Captain (10/1)
2005 – Come On Jonny (14/1)
2004 – Carte Diamond (12/1)
2003 – Turbo (25/1)

 

November Handicap Trends

14/17 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
14/17 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
14/17 – Favourites that were unplaced
13/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
13/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
12/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/17 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/17 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/17 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 23 runners heading to post here and no shock to see another ultra-competitive renewal. It’s a race the Gosden yard have liked to target in recent years – winning the race 6 times in total. They have just the one runner this year – FIRST LIGHT. This 3 year-old clearly didn’t stay the 1m6f trip last time at Ascot so the drop back to 1m4f here will help. He’s lightly-raced with only six career runs and is only 4lbs higher than when winning over this trip at Ascot back in July. That last run also came off a 3 month break so should be a lot sharper for it, plus draw 12 here looks ideal with 14 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher. With that draw stat in mind, the Charlie Fellowes runner – Mr Curiosity, who has been popular all week, has that to overcome with draw 6. He is up 8lbs here but was a tidy winner last time out at Redcar over 1m6f so that proven stamina is a big plus. East Asia was another nice winner last time out at Nottingham, but is up 5lbs more here and draw 8 might not be ideal. Global Storm is the top-rated in the field for Godolphin and they help on that score with the promising Adam Farragher booked to ride and claiming 5lbs. The likes of Flying Solo, Sam Cooke and Calling The Wind are others to respect, but with a featherweight of just 8-3, the Hollie Doyle-ridden FARHAN (e/w) catches the eye. This 3 year-old has been runner-up the last three times too, including in a similar race to this last time at Newmarket. He’s also only been out of the top three twice from his 10 starts and certainly won’t mind the softer ground – having won in these conditions this time last season at Ponty.

 

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