Our trading experts take a look at the best of the action this weekend from the German Bundesliga & the English Championship
Friday 31st March
7.30 Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim
Just one draw in the last eight head to heads and five of those eight were Over 2.5 goals. Hertha have the strongest home form in the Bundesliga with ten wins and a draw from their twelve games. Hoffenheim have scored in their last eleven matches and in eleven of twelve away. It is hard to look past the strong home form of Hertha especially when the books don’t have them as favourites. I think the safest options are Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals with preference for the latter.
Saturday 1st April
12.30 Barnsley v Sheff Wed
Two teams who were going so well just a couple of months ago but have since both hit a bad patch. Barnsley have not won in six and Wednesday won just one in their last six. This will be a fiercely fought local Derby with both sides needing three points to stay in the play-off race. Sheffield Wed have won four of the last five head to head with one draw and four of the five games Under 2.5 goals. Sheff Wed to win in a dull encounter.
2.30 Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Let’s keep this one simple, no need to over complicate things when the stats all suggest the same thing. Freiburg have had Over 2.5 goals in eight of twelve at home, Bremen in eight of twelve away. Nine of the last twelve head to head have been Over 2.5 goals, with four of the last five in Freiburg the same. It has to be Over 2.5 goals.
15.00 Wolves v Cardiff
The stats have thrown something up that I am often asked about. There has been no draw in the last seven meetings today and one draw in the last fourteen meetings today. We can look at this in two ways, a draw is unlikely as it happens very rarely or we can say that a draw is likely as it hasn’t happened for a while. The question is which is correct or more likely to be right? There is no right answer but what you must be is consistent, don’t use one way one week and the other the following week, that way you could end up always getting it wrong. Wolves have drawn only once in their last fourteen home games and in one of the last twelve overall. Cardiff are more prolific with three of their last five games ending level but only one in their last seven away. Lay the Draw is the obvious call.
15.00 Ipswich v Birmingham
This is the opposite of the previous game with a draw hugely likely. Ipswich have drawn eight of their last eleven league games, including their last four at home. Birmingham have drawn their last two and three of their last seven away. The head to head sees no away win in the last eight meetings today with three draws in the last seven. Back the draw and have a correct score on 1-1.
Sunday 2nd April
4.30 Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
The last twelve head to head have seen only one drawn game and eleven of those twelve were Over 2.5 goals with seven of the twelve Over 3.5 goals. Eight of Leverkusen’s thirteen home and six of Wolfsburg’s twelve away games have been Over 2.5 goals including the reverse fixture in Wolfsburg in October. Both sides need the points so expect an end to end game with Over 2.5 goals the call.
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