Change Or Fail As A Betfair Trader – A Trip Down Memory Lane
Algorithmic or manual trading? Unsure? Then this article is for you.
The JuiceStorm team built TradeHost for profitable automated trading and betting on Betfair in the UK, IE, AU and US horse racing markets. TradeHost Lite started in 2013 and is free forever.
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I was reflecting back today on the halcyon days of Betfair trading – before algorithmic trading – because of the end of another illustrious career in trading in a different market. Andrew Hall, also known as “God”, had to shut down his Astenbeck Master Commodities Fund II Ltd. after suffering a 30% loss in funds. For more than a decade the British-born oil trader had bet long and bet big that crude prices could only go higher.
Andrew lost 500M of investors money that year before he finally shut down the fund. Big numbers.
The fact is that algorithmic trading systems have increasingly come to dominate the oil market and, increasingly, that is happening on Betfair. It had to happen. If you want to carry on trading manually then this article is for you.
Some professional Betfair traders like Caan Berry continue to trade daily profitably but others are now only considering the InPlay markets where the market is less efficient. But even Caan accepts that it has become increasingly challenging to trade on Betfair pre race.
Sadly, in my opinion, Andrew Hall was trading the market with a noughties mindset while the market completely changed in front of him. There are still new Betfair traders entering the market having studied hundreds of outdated free videos on YouTube hoping to turn a profit with ideas that simply do not work any more.
The key lesson for anyone who trades is to understand that markets are not static environments. Their structure changes all the time and it is the trader’s job to constantly question his underlying model of analysis to make sure it’s in alignment with the current reality of trade. The single most dangerous word in trading is – ALWAYS. As in market’s always do this…etc. That is a straight path to failure.
Betfair markets teach us to be humble and mentally flexible every day.
Reading about Andrew’s demise which he blames on algorithmic trading systems it is clear he never adapted to this new market. Please don’t make the same mistake as a Betfair trader.
Sun Tzu once said, “He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.” This is perhaps some of the greatest advice that we can absorb as traders. Very often we trade not to win but satisfy our ego. Taking on the world, or the market is a romantic idea that we’ve all been taught, but in Betfair trading, that is a very expensive way to conduct your business.
Many traders see the Betfair markets needing more nimble and nuanced trading strategies that have superseded the old mantras.
Learning to trade on Betfair against algorithmic trading systems on Betfair can be done. But you need an angle and TradeHost gives you that.
Personally, most readers will know that I moved to algorithmic trading models on Betfair many years ago. I saw the writing on the wall even then. I was screwed as a manual trader trading swings. It worked for my first two years but I didn’t have the correct mindset to change. I simply didn’t want to. So I chose to exit and be part of the automated trading model that now dominated Betfair. I’m glad I did. But that’s not to say that manual traders who are faster than me – I am getting on, you know – can’t still earn a good living. You can. Just don’t expect it to be as easy as you see in the free videos. I would go even further. Pay them no heed. Get serious and invest in yourself.
In 2021 TradeHost traded 7,937 Betfair UK, IE, US & AU horse racing and greyhound markets.
2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.
All trades and bets were streamed live on JuiceStorm TV which was was watched by 124,209 traders in 2022.
All results for the 30,635 Betfair markets traded are here and the charts are here.
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