Sugita vs Mannarino 06.07.17
Wimbledon, London, UK, Grass Courts, ATP World Tour
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De ja vu i hear you say, yes it’s these two again, Japenese world number 44, Yuichi Sugita and French world number 51, Adrian Mannarino face off for the second time in a week, this time in Round Two of Wimbledon.
These two have met three times previously with Sugita winning twice. The Japense man has won both of his matches on the grass, firstly back in 2012 in Nottingham 6-4 3-6 7-6 and then just last week in the Final of the Antalya Open in Turkey, 6-1 7-6. Sugita was very impressive in this match and really took the game to Mannarino, who looked incapable of dealing with Sugita’s pace off the forehand side, and I expect a repeat of this today. Mannarino’s sole win came on the clay in Monte Carlo earlier this year, with the Frenchman prevailing 6-3 6-4.
Wimbledon Results So Far…
Sugita was impressive in beating Brit, Brydan Klein in Round 1, 7-6 6-3 6-0. The Japenese man wasn’t broken once and again demonstrated some big hitting off the ground throughout.
Mannarino beat an injured Feliciano Lopez 5- 7 6-1 6-1 4-3 (retired), and even though Lopez could hardly serve or move, at times Mannarino struggled. He will certainly need to up his level today in order to compete.
Sugita’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; he’s won 66% of his service points and held serve 86% of the time.
Mannarino’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; he’s won 63% of his service points and held serve 79% of the time.
Sugita has a very good serve, he hits either a hard flat ball or a slice delivery with great consistency, Mannarino really struggled to return it with any depth in the Final in Antalya and i’ve seen nothing to suggest that is going to change today. Mannarino has a lefty serve that he’ll look to slide away from Sugita, however the Japenese man is such a good athlete that if he can get a read on the serve he can get plenty of balls back, another pattern of play we saw regularly in Antalya.
Sugita’s recent grass court mean returning stats look like this, he’s won 41% of his return points, 48% of his break points and opponents have held 70% of the time against him.
Mannarino’s recent grass court mean returning stats look like this, he’s won 40% of his return points, 46% of his break points and opponents have held 73% of the time against him.
Mannarino will look to block Sugita’s big serves back into play off both wings, whilst Sugita will look to take big swings and be more aggressive off the return. One of the keys to Mannarino’s success or failure in this match will be the consistency and depth he can get off the return, if he isn’t making many balls back into play or isn’t getting the depth on the return, Sugita should hold with relative ease. Equally if Sugita continues to return like he has been, with consistency, depth and aggression, Mannarino may find himself broken a few times today.
Mannarino will look to push Sugita from side to side off both his forehand and backhand, hitting it with varying levels of pace in order to unsettle him. Mannarino will need to do a better job at taking time away from Sugita than he did in Antalya, or the Japenese man will just play the match on his terms again. Sugita used his heavy whippy forehand to great effect in that match, and he’ll look to get this in play as much as possible again today. We will also see him using his double-handed backhand to set up short defensive replies from Mannarino that he can then put away with ease.
You can probably guess that i’m certainly backing Sugita to win this match. Mannarino can keep it close if playing his best, however Sugita’s aggressive game style and impressive grass court pedigree is a bad matchup for the Frenchman, and i expect that to be enough for the Japenese man to advance today.
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