• Author
• Recent Posts

Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Latest posts by Tennis Purist (see all)

• Trading Grass Court Tennis - May 29, 2018
• Rome Challenger & Madrid WTA Match Previews - May 9, 2018
• Munich & Istanbul ATP Tour Match Previews - May 5, 2018

It’s  the first of the Women’s Quarter Finals today at the French Open, Roland Garros, and we are going to be focusing on a match between two players with very contrasting playing styles, the Latvian world number 47, Jelena Ostapenko and the Danish world number 12, Caroline Wozniacki.

Previous Meetings:

These two have met three times previously, with Ostapenko winning all three. Their first meeting was back in 2016 on the hard courts of New Haven, USA, the Latvian winning 7-5 6-2. They have also met twice on the clay, both meetings today coming in the past two months; Charleston USA in back in April, where Ostapenko won in straight sets, 6-2 6-4 and then more recently in Prague where Osta got the better of the Dane in three sets, 5-7 6-3 7-6.

French Open Results So Far…

Ostapenko started her campaign by beating Louisa Chirico in Round 1, despite losing the first set, she took the next two 6-3 6-2 to advance. In Round 2 it was slightly more straight forward for the Latvian, as she defeated Monica Puig in straight sets 6-3 6-2. Another straight sets victory followed in Round 3 as she breezed past Lesia Tsurenko 6-1 6-4. Ostapenko’s biggest test of the tournament so far came in the last Round where she played the in form Australian, Sam Stosur. Stosur comfortably took the first set 2-6, before a host of flashing winners saw the Latvain hit back to take the second by the same scoreline. A single break of serve in the fifth game of the deciding set proved the difference, and it was Osta who got it, she then managed to hold her nerve and see the match out 6-4 in the third.

Wozniacki began by beating Jaimee Fourlis 6-4 3-6 6-2 in Round 1, and followed that up with straight sets, double-bagel victory over Francois Abanda in Round 2, 6-0 6-0. The Dane’s draw then got all the more difficult, as she next faced the promising American, Catherine Bellis. After taking the first set 6-2, Bellis responded to take the second 2-6, it was Wozniacki though who came up with the goods in the decider to take it 6-3. Life got no easier for the Dane in the last Round as she came up against the hard-hitting Russian world number 9, Svetlana Kuznetsova. Wozniacki again took the first though, 6-1, only for Kuznetsova to rally and take the second 4-6. However some inspired, attacking tennis from Wozniacki saw her win the decider 6-2 in just over half an hour.

Serving Stats:

Ostapenko this tournament has won 58% of her service points and held serve 70% of the time. These compare to her recent clay court mean numbers of 58% service points won and 67% service hold. The Latvian has been serving well this week, her second serve is always vulnerable, but with Wozniacki’s less aggressive playing-style, it should be slightly less exposed today.

Wozniacki this tournament has won 61% of his service points and held serve 78% of the time. These compare to his recent clay court mean numbers of 56% service points won and 66% service hold. Wozniacki’s serve has been extremely dominant this week, not something you usually associate with her, and even more surprising given who she’s played. Ostapenko will certainly be looking to hit aggressively off the return, so the Dane will need to keep these serving numbers high to keep her at bay.

Returning Stats:

Ostapenko this tournament has won 52% of her return points, 59% of her break points and opponents have held serve 46% of the time against her. These compare to her recent clay court mean numbers of, 48% return points won, 49% break points won and 53% opposition hold. The Latvian always returns very aggressively, and her numbers have been impressive again during this tournament, she will be looking to really take the Wozniacki serve on today, and if she’s firing she can create plenty of break point opportunities.

Wozniacki this tournament has won 50% of her return points, 56% of her break points and her opponents have held serve 51% of the time. These compare to her recent clay court mean numbers of 49% return points won, 58% break points won and 52% opposition hold. Wozniacki is a consistent returner and she will put plenty of balls back in play off the Ostapenko serve, her biggest challenge will be hurting the Latvian though and not allowing her to then dictate.

Groundstrokes:

As mentioned at the beginning off this article, these two have incredibly different playing styles, we have the hyper-aggressive, hard hitting Ostapenko, against the wily counter-puncher, Wozniacki.  Ostapenko will most certainly be looking to dictate the rallies off both wings, expect plenty of winners and unforced errors off her racket. Wozniacki will hit far less winners, make far less unforced errors and generally will be far more ‘measured’ off the ground though.

Summary:

This should be a very entertaining match, with the two contrasting styles making things extremely interesting. If Ostapenko is at her best i think she can take this, her style is not a good match up for Wozniacki, who likes to get into a rhythm off the ground. However, if Ostapenko is struggling to find the court with her massive groundstrokes, and this is something she does sometimes struggles with, then Wozniacki’s more consistent game could be enough to see her advance. Certainly not the easiest one to call, both players will be feeling the nerves and it may well just come down to who handles the occasion the best.