Finals Day ATP, WTA & Challenger Tour Match Previews

ATP, WTA & Challenger Tour, Clay Courts

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Barletta Challenger Final (Italy)

Trungelliti vs Bollelli

An interesting matchup this, they’ve never met before and are both clay court ‘specialists’ predominantly on the Challenger Tour. Trungelliti has won 12 of his last 15 matches, all on clay, whilst Bolelli has won 10 of his last 13, also on the same surface. So with both players in very good form I expect a closely contested match, Bolelli will have the support of the home crowd behind him and will look to be the more aggressive off the two player off the ground, especially of that forehand wing. Trungelliti however is more than versed in the art of attacking tennis, and he also will look to counter-punch where possible. I think how often and how consistently the Argentine can do this will actually ultimately decide the outcome of this match. Both players have held serve over 80% of the time this week, and actually it’s Trungelliti who has the slightly better return numbers. Although i think Bolelli will win, 3 sets would not surprise me here.

Lugano WTA Final (Switzerland)

Sabalenka vs Mertens

This is a matchup that is going to be all about attack vs defence. The 19 year old Belarusian, Sabalenka will hit aggressively off both wings, and if she’s on her A game she will take the racket out of most players hands. She also has a huge serve, and has held serve nearly 86% of the time this week, an unheard of stat in WTA tennis on a clay court. Mertens will play a defensive style from the back of the court, look to keep the ball deep and return it with interest, she will be consistent off both wings, and when playing well can redirect pace very astutely. She’s held serve 69% of the time this week, but must up that first serve % from just under 60% to prevent Sabalenka going after it too much today. I make Sabalenka favourite here, I think there’s real value in backing her to win. Mertens has played three 3-set matches in a row, including two yesterday (totalling over 4.5 hours) meaning she will be feeling it physically and I just don’t think the Belgian will be able to cope with Sabalenka’s big serve and powerful groundies today.

Marrackech ATP 250 Final (Morocco)

Andujar vs Edmund

Two players returning from injury have made it to the Final here in Morocco this week, Andujar is following up his tournament win in Alicante last week with another fantastic run here. Edmund is playing his first matches on the clay this year, and already looks at home on this surface. These two have met once before, on a hard court in Beijing in 2016, Edmund was the victor there in straight sets. In the serving department, looking at the stats from the week so far, Andujar has held serve 74% of the time, with Edmund holding 90% of the time. Both players have won around 50% of their return points, so it’s not unfair to say that the serve of Edmund is likely to play a big part in the outcome of this match. The other element that i think will play a factor here is the Edmund backhand, it looked good in patches against Gasquet yesterday, but can be unreliable and a little ‘pushy’. Andujar, even at the age of 32 is a great mover, and will look to grind as well as attack where he an from the back of the court. The Spaniard is equally adept of either wing, whereas Edmund will look to get his huge forehand into play as often as possible. I think the Brit will have enough to win here, but should be made to work hard for it.