Fed Cup & ATP Challenger Tour Sarasota Match Previews

Genoa, Italy & Sarasota, USA

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Errani vs Mertens – Italy vs Belgium Fed Cup

With Belgium already 2-0 up in the tie, anything bar an Errani win will win this one for Mertens and the gang. I watched Errani yesterday, and had it not been for some simply shocking play from Alison Van Uytvanck the Italian veteran would have lost comfortably in straight sets. Errani hit 17 double faults during the match, and had treatment on her right calf towards the end of the third set.

Mertens won her opening tie 6-1 7-5, and is coming off the back of the back of winning both the Singles and Doubles title in Lugano, Switzerland last week. She’s clearly in form, clearly very comfortable on the clay and is at a career-high ranking, anything other than a comfortable Mertens win would shock me here.

Bagnis vs Dellien – Sarasota ATP Challenger Final

This one comes from the green clay courts of Sarasota, USA and is likely to be a well contested affair between veteran Facundo Bagnis and the surprise package of the week, Hugo Dellien. These two played back in 2013 on the clay in Columbia, with Bagnis winning in straight sets, this was a long time ago though and should bear little relevance to the result of this match.

Bagnis has beaten some good players on his route to the Final, Choinski, Bellucci and the improving Jay Clarke were all dispatched for the dropping of just a singular set. Yesterday he defeated Reilly Opelka, when the Canadian had to retire in the first set with a back injury.

Dellien has also just dropped the one set so far this week, and was in magnificent against the in form Juan Londero last night. For those that don’t know much about Dellien, the Bolivian has a good solid all court game, his serve is decent, he tends to look to his forehand dictate most of the points, but is also able to hit his backhand (which is his weaker wing) down the line for winners too. He’s a quick mover, and a good athlete too, so look for him to chase down plenty of balls today.

So far this week, Bagnis has won 64% of his service point and held serve 80% of the time. Dellien’s like for like stats read 62% and 70%. If the Argentine can find the Deliien backhand frequently off the serve, I expect him to hold often, if not, with Dellien’s strong return points won % this week of 53%, the Bolivian could well earn himself plenty of opportunities to break.

Should be close this, possibly three sets, I think there’s a bit of value on Dellien at the current odds and I if he can bring yesterday’s form into today’s match I think he can win this.