Match Preview Zverev vs Coric 30.03 Miami Open 2018

Miami, USA, Hard Courts, ATP

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Previous Meetings

Coric has won both of their previous meetings today, both on hard courts, and both in the U.S. Sets are always tight between these two, with 5 of the 7 sets they’ve played being won either 7-5 or 7-6. I’m expecting it to be another close match today.

After Round 1 exits in Acapluco and Indian Wells, Zverev at last looks like he is finding some form here in Miami. He beat the enigmatic Nick Kyrgios in the last Round and prior to that he defeated Ferrer and Medvedev, both in 3 sets. I still think he needs to improve further in order to win this competition, but I do like him a lot as a player and am convinced that he’s a future grand slam champion.

Coric has to be the most improved player of the season so far (along with Hyeon Chung), he is being more aggressive and has improved his serve a lot. All of his matches here in Miami have gone the distance, and his win over Shapovalov in the last Round was the match of the tournament so far in my opinion. He’s also beaten Leonardo Mayer and Jack Sock during his run to the Quarters.

Zverev’s Recent Hard Court Mean Serving Stats

Won 66% of his service points

Held serve 83% of the time

The German has a big serve when it’s on. It can however be slightly erratic and his second serve can be exploited when he’s struggling. Generally speaking though he will hit his serve hard a flat, hit plenty of aces and is likely to be difficult to break with any level of regularity.

Coric’s Recent Hard Court Mean Serving Stats

Won 68% of his service points

Held serve 83% of the time

The numbers above give a great indication as to how much Coric’s serve has improved, his recent hard court mean serving numbers are actually better than Zverev’s! Coric relies on consistency and placement, rather than raw power on his serve. He also has an effective second serve which is currently winning him over 57% of points, this is well over the recent ATP hard court mean of 50%.

Zverev’s Recent Hard Court Mean Returning Stats

Won 39% of his return points

Won 45% of his break points

Opponents have held 77% of the time against him

Zverev has a good return of serve, he will look to attack where he can, especially on short second serves. I expect him to go after the Coric serve today, so the Croat will need a high % of first serves in play. Zverev has a great double handed backhand, and has great feel on this shot off the return, so look out for this.

Coric’s Recent Hard Court Mean Returning Stats

Won 41% of his return points

Won 49% of his break points

Opponents have held 67% of the time against him

Coric will get plenty of balls back into play off the return, and his break point conversion is high. I don’t think he’ll get tonnes of chances off the Zverev serve today, so he’ll need to take those that he does get. He is equally adept returning off either wing.

Zverev’s Groundstrokes

Zverev is an aggressive baseliner, he hits the ball hard and pretty flat off the backhand side, and with a bit more topspin on the forehand. He certainly favours his double handed backhand wing, as the forehand can be inconsistent and pulled into the net at times. He will look to dictate the points, but will need to remain patient during the rallies today, as Coric will not beat himself.

Coric’s Groundstrokes

I would describe Coric as a counter-puncher, like Zverev he will spend most of his time at the back of the court, and will make plenty of balls back in play. He can turn defence into attack though at any moment, and is becoming more adept at being aggressive at the right times. He is strong off both wings and will certainly make Zverev work hard to win every point.

Summary

A really interesting encounter this, Coric has won both previous matches between the two, both on hard courts, he also has better serving and returning stats and is in the better form…however Zverev looked good against Kyrgios, and will be the fresher of the two players, as Coric has played three 3 setters. I think this one could go the distance, and i think it’s a coin flip as to which way it will go. I think there’s a bit of pre-match value on Coric given the stats, but i think the safer play if you want to have a bet would be Over 22 games (SunBets).