Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 30th April 2022

Free horse racing tips and trends

A huge Saturday and Sunday this weekend as it’s Guineas weekend with the first two Classics of the season which means the new flat turf season is well and truly started.

We’ve four races – including the 2,000 Guineas – to take in at Newmarket  on Saturday, plus the ITV cameras are also heading to Goodwood and Thirsk to take in two more LIVE races – plenty to look forward to!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our free horse racing tips, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV

8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/9 – Won 3+ times before
8/9 – Had won over 6f before
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Rated 100+
6/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
6/9 – Returned 8/1 or bigger
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Richard Fahey
0/9 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: STRIKE RED (e/w)
JUICESTORM DANGER:  JUMBY (e/w)

2.25 – Betfair Daily Rewards Suffolk Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV

15/16 – Had won at least twice before
15/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
14/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
13/16 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/16 – Rated between 90 and 96
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Having their first run of the season
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Irish bred
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Winning favourites
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 13 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: FAST MEDICINE
JUICESTORM DANGER:  MOVIN TIME (e/w)

3.00 – Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

17/19 – Had won over 5f before
17/19 – Won 3 or more times before
16/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
16/19 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
16/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/19 – Had run at Newmarket before
14/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/19 – Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Just 2 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: TWILIGHT CALLS
JUICESTORM DANGER:  CAME FROM THE DARK

 

3.40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

20/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/20 – Had won over at least 7f before
18/20 – Had won a Group race before
18/20 – Had won between 2-5 times before
16/20 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
16/20 – Won last time out
15/20 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/20 – Having their first run of the season
13/20 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/20 – Irish bred
9/20 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/20 – Had won over a mile before
7/20 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/20 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/20 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/20 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

– Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
– Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: NATIVE TRAIL
JUICESTORM DANGER:  PERFECT POWER (e/w)

The Aidan O’Brien yard has landed the 2000 Guineas a staggering 10 times, so his entries are always respected – he has Point Lonsdale (Frankie Dettori) and Luxembourg  (Ryan Moore) this year and both have big says.

Jockey Ryan Moore would have had the choice of the O’Brien entires  – so, the fact he’s picked Luxembourg indicates this unbeaten Camelot colt is their better fancied. He was last out when winning the Vertum Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster back in October – a contest that’s often a good guide to the 2000 Guineas. He also holds an Epsom Derby entry for later this season.

However, the one that all the other horses have to strive to beat looks to be the Godolphin-owned NATIVE TRAIL who comes here as the top-rated and has won all five of his races. He was last in action winning the Craven Stakes here this month – winning by 3 1/2 lengths – so, the track will pose no issues.

Before that win, he took the Group One Dewhurst Stakes last season – a race that 4 of the last 20 2000 Guineas winners also took – and has so far won 4 of his 5 starts by 2 or more lengths. Jockey William Buick gets the leg up and he comes from the in-form Charlie Appleby stable that have a 29% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds at the course.

Other 2000 Guineas Runners To Note

Godolphin also have a live support chance with Coroebus who is also a course and distance winner at the course after winning the Autumn Stakes here last October – he’s also trained by Charlie Appleby.

But, the two at bigger prices that catch the eye are PERFECT POWER and BOUNDLESS OCEAN (e/w).  The former was a nice winner last time at Newbury in the Greenham Stakes and will come here race fit from that victory and jockey Christophe Soumillion has made no secret that he thinks the horse is useful

Boundless Ocean could also go well at a fair price, being trained by Jim Bolger, who won this race 12 months ago. He was a good winner last time at Leopardstown over 1m2f so connections are sure to make full use of that proven stamina now dropped back to a mile.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.40 –
William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/10 – Yet to race at the track
8/10 – Won 2 or more times before
7/10 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
8/10 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
6/10 – Aged 4 years-old
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
5/10 – Won over a mile before
4/10 – Winners from stall 1
3/10 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites

JUICESTORM VERDICT: PRIMO BACIO
JUICESTORM DANGER:  MRS FITZHERBERT

 

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Fitzdares Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
10/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
9/10 – Won at least twice before
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over at least 1m before
8/10 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
8/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Won between 2-4 times
6/10 – Winners from a double-figure draw
5/10 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/10 – Winning favourites

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby

JUICESTORM VERDICT: ASTRO KING
JUICESTORM DANGER: EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (e/w)

 

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