Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 23rd April 2022
Horse racing tips and trends
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It’s Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……
Yes, a huge day ahead this Saturday as we end the jumps season with a cracking card at Sandown – four LIVE races on ITV, including the Bet365 Gold Cup – while there is also LIVE action at Haydock and Leicester – with their races are covered too.
So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, here at JUICESTORM we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.
Let’s get started!
SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV
Just three previous runnings
Herbiers (Oliver Greenhall) won the race in 2021
No race in 2020 (Covid)
Getaway Trump (Paul Nicholls) 9/2 fav won the race in 2019
Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
2/3 – Winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/3 – Winning favourites
2/3 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Tom Lacey (3-from-11) has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Chris Gordon is just 1 from 28 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 2 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tough race to begin the Saturday Sandown action with 13 runners heading to post and of those six were winners last time out – Knappers Hill, Head Law, Dibble Decker, Boombawn, Alto Alto and Red Vision.
It’s a prize the Paul Nicholls stable landed in 2019, so they will be looking to repeat the dose with the top-weight – Knappers Hill. This 6 year-old got back in the winners’ enclousure last time out at Newton Abbot – however, he’s got 11st-12lbs to carry this time and will also be giving weight away to all the others. Certainly has a chance but the big weight burden might just just make him vulnerable.
The Jonjo O’Neill-trained Head Law has won his last three starts easily and has to be considered too, but is raised another 10lbs and this is also a hike up the grades.
The Dan Skelton team are only 2-from-38 with their hurdlers at the course so despite having a few nice options with Boombawn and Doctor Parnassus, this stat is a concern.
Therefore, the two I’m going for are – WHIZZ KID – and the Tom Lacey-trained DIBBLE DECKER (e/w).
WHIZZ KID was well-fancied the the last day when fourth at Aintree and ran well for a long way there – just getting run out of it late on with a few sloppy jumps. The horse was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths and is only a pound higher this time. Top jockey Sam Twiston-Davies takes over plus the quicker conditions here will be another plus.
DIBBLE DECKER hails from the Tom Lacey camp that are advertising a cracking 27% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the course. This 6 year-old was last seen at Taunton winning well and a 5lb hike for that looks more than fair. The quicker conditions here are a small concern, but he’s won on good-to-soft before, which is a good indication it’s worth chancing.
2.25 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV
7/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
7/7 – Trained by Hobbs (4), Henderson (1) or Nicholls (2)
6/7 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
6/7 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
4/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Ran at Aintree last time out
Frodon (4/5) won the race in 2021
Owner Diana Whateley won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls (2) have won the race in the past too
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only four runners, which is dissapointing – but the race still looks interesting.
The ratings indicate Erne River has something to find, but needs to bounce back from falling last time at Aintree. On a plus, he’s a horse that’s improved a this season to win twice and it would be no shock if he ran well.
The other trio are more well known – Mister Fisher, Saint Calvados and Nuts Well – and are all decent middle-distance chasers on their day, but also all head here with something to prove after poor recent showings.
Mister Fisher was last seen pulling up in the Marsh Chase at Aintree earlier this month and well beaten prior to that in the Ascot Chase. The better ground here is a positive but he does have a bit to prove over this 2m6f distance – the ground will help, but the furthest he’s won over is 2m4 1/2f.
Nuts Well is now an 11 year-old and won well two outings ago at Kelso, plus he ran a nice race in the Betfair Bowl last time – that was a much better race and finished 6th of 9. He a horse that stays further too and the ground is okay.
That said, I’m happy to take a chance on the Paul Nicholls runner – SAINT CALVADOS. This 9 year-old hasn’t progressed as many thought he would and his last win now was in Oct 2019 – but you feel his turn isn’t far away.
He’s only had three outings for Nicholls and two of those have actually been okay runs. Let’s not forget, he was third in the King George on Boxing Day and last time was 5th in the Marsh Chase. He’s a horse that will pop up again at some point and his record over fences is still not too shabby despite that big space between his last win – 17 runs and 10 top three finishes (5 wins).
The Nicholls camp have also been having plenty of winners of late so their horses are in top order, while he’s the joint top-rated in the line-up (with Mister Fisher), but also gets a useful 6lbs from that Henderson-trained horse.
3.00 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV
18/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
16/18 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
14/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
13/18 – Rated 160 or higher
13/18 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
11/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/18 – Irish bred
7/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Winning favourite
5/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc 4 of last 5)
5/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 6 times in all)
4/18 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/18 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (4 of the last 5)
3/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Greaneteen (13/2) won the race in 2021
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another small field, with only five runners. Sky Pirate and Rouge Vif look up against it on these level weight terms – really this looks to sit between Sceau Royal, Nube Negra and last year’s hero – Greaneteen.
GREANETEEN beat Altior 12 months ago – which was a top effort and although he’s a very frustrating 2m chaser that lack a bit of consistency, he’s does seem to adore Sandown – his last three runs at the track read 2-1-1.
He also saw off Nube Negra by 12 lengths in the Tingle Creek at this track in December and will come here a fresh horse after missing the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. He can supply trainer Paul Nicholls with his seventh win in this race.
Of the others, Sceau Royal came back to form with a nice third in the Marsh Chase at Aintree last time and is a course and distance winner at the course, but was well back in third in this 12 months ago.
Nube Negra will be a fresh horse too after also bypassing the huge recent festivals. He can give last year’s winner most to fear, but with Greaneteen having won at the track twice this just gives him the edge for me.
3.32 – bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV
17/18 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/18 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/18 – Had won over 3m or further before
14/18 – Aged 9 or younger
13/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Officially rated 140 or higher
11/18 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
10/18 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/18 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/18 – Won with 10st in weight
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/18 – Trained by Alan King (last two winners)
0/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 14/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 30 (80%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 7 of the last 18 runnings (39%)
14 of the last 18 (78%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the main event on the final jumps day of the season – and we’ve another decent but very competitive renewal with 15 runners lining up for the bet365 Gold Cup.
Many added mini sub-plots in the race as well, with last year’s disqualified horse – Enrilo – returning for more, while the eventual winner from the Alan King yard – Potterman. We’ve also got the recent Scottish Grand National winner and second – Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light – entered.
Enrilo has figured high in the betting for a while and it’s not hard to see why. Okay, he ran about in the race at the end last season which cost him the prize – he won the race but was placed third in the end by the stewards.
He’s back on only a pound higher rating but is now a year older as an 8 year-old and will be a wiser and stronger horse. He should also be spot-on after a fourth at Kempton at the end of February and you suspect the bet365 Gold Cup has been is target all season to try and make up what happended 12 months ago. Certainly a huge player, but the small concern is that he might go off favourite and the last jolly to win the bet365 Gold Cup was in 2000!
The Christian Williams stable could be the ones to ruin the Enrilo plan, as they’ve a decent hand with recent Scottish National 1st and 2nd running – Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light, who was second in the race last year – while they also have Coral Trophy winner Cap Du Nord in the race.
Win My Wings is has been raised 14lbs for that Scottish National win, but the runner-up Kitty’s Light, who ran on well in that race, is only up 2lbs. Despite that rise we can expect Win My Wings to go well, but the extra rise in the ratings is the concern. Kitty’s Light is still young (6) so could have the more to come and of the three Williams runners just edges it.
The small worry with Kitty’s Light is that he got a tad behind last time at Ayr and despite running on well at the finish, the conern here at Sandown is thtat it might not be easy to make up the ground – especially with the Railway Fences down the back straight coming thick and fast. But he did handle the track well 12 months ago to be second and certainly wasn’t helped with Enrilo’s antics that day either. Of the Williams trio he can come out on top for me.
Cap Du Nord only has 10st-7lbs in weight to carry and is a proven course winner at the track, but will need to put a poor run at Aintree last time behind him.
Last year’s eventual winner – Potterman – comes from the Alan King stable that have won the last two runnings of this race too. He’s only up 2lbs higher from last year and comes here in top winning form after going in at Kelso – that was also his first run off a wind op, so has to be one for the shortlist.
The two I’m happy to play here though are FLEGMATIK (e/w) and MUSICAL SLAVE (e/w). In recent year’s 14 of the last 18 winners carry 11st or less, so this is a plus for this pair with Flegmatik having 10st-11lbs and Musical Slave just 10st-2lb.
FLEGMATIK for trainer Dan Skelton, comes here having won his last two at Kempton and although a 9lb rise is a chaser in-form and with more to come. Yes, the longer trip (3m 5f)here is an unknownbut he’s won over 3m and on this better ground you feel it’s worth a crack.
MUSICAL SLAVE also comes here having won his last two – at Haydock last time, but also here at Sandown in March. He also gets inhere off the same mark as last time and with only 10st-2lbs to carry has a light weight which is a bonus over this 3m5f distance. He’s also another that is trying the longer trip for the first time, but kept on well over 3m 1 1/2f last time to suggest it’s worth a crack.
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 – Great Shevington Handicap Cl2 7f ITV
8 previous runnings
7/8 – Aged 5 or younger
7/8 – Won over 7f in the past
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/8 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/8 – Winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
3/8 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/8 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by William Haggas
2/8 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
JUICESTORM BEST BET: BOARDMAN
JUICESTORM DANGER: OO DE LALLY
LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.45 – EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV
12/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
10/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/12 – Won at least twice in the past
10/12 – Had won over 7f in the past
9/12 – Irish bred winners
9/12 – Last ran 2+ months ago
9/12 – Officially rated 107 or higher
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
7/12 – Unplaced last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/12 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
JUICESTORM BEST BET: PATH OF THUNDER
JUICESTORM DANGER: ARATUS
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