Cheltenham Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Friday 12th Nov 21

Cheltenham Horse Racing free tips

It’s DAY ONE of the Cheltenham November Meeting this Friday (12th) and to get us off-and-running the ITV cameras have FOUR LIVE races from Prestbury Park for us to take in that include the Glenfarclas Cross Countrya race trainer Enda Bolger has won 7 times in the last 17 years.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV4

17/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Raced at Cheltenham before
15/18 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
15/18 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
14/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
11/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/18 – Unplaced in their previous race
9/18 – Having their first run of the season
9/18 – Favourites placed
9/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
7/18 – French-bred horse
4/18 – Favourites that won
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/18 – Won their most recent race
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Trained by Paul Henderson (2 of last 4 runnings)
0/18 – Irish-trained winners
Magic Saint (10/3) won the race in 2020
Bun Doran won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls camp are in fine fettle at the moment, and they look to have a leading chance here with MAGIC SAINT, who actually won this race 12 months ago too. This 7 year-old does have his fair share of weight (12-1) but 5lbs of that is offset with the useful Angus Cheleda’s claim. He gets in off the same mark as when winning this last year and it’s interesting that 12 months ago connections also used a claiming jockey. A recent spin at Wetherby would have blown the cobwebs away and he also needed a run last year before taking this. The 10 year-old Bun Doran is the other only CD winner in the race (won this in 2018) and is having his first run back from a wind op here, while recent Market Rasen scorer – Stolen Silver – will be popular too, but is up another 4lbs here and this look a much harder race. The improving Kap Auteuil deserves to take his chance in his better race, having won his last four. More on his plate here but is only 3lbs higher than last time and is still only 6 years-old – should have more to come. Off a light weight Bathiva can go well too, but you feel the main danger to the pick will come from the Gary Moore runner – EDITOR DU GITE. Unseated last time at Ascot on his return when looking held at the time. But still ran a good race up till then and should be a lot fitter for it. Last season he improved to win good races at Newbury and Aintree, plus with the Moore yard in decent form at present he looks to have a big chance with Niall Houlihan helping in the saddle to claim 5lbs.

 

2.20 – SSS Super Alloys Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

18/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
17/18 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
16/18 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
16/18 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
15/18 –  Finished in the top three in their latest race
14/18 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
11/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old  (10 of last 13 runnings)
9/18 – Irish-bred horse
9/18 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
9/18 – Raced already that season
8/18 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/18 – First run over fences
8/18 – Won their latest race
7/18 – French-bred horse
7/18 – Favourites that won
6/18 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
5/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the three runners here, but still a nice little race. The Gordon Elliott yard send over Fancy Foundations, who was still in with a chance before falling at Tipperary last time out. Prior to that tumble he’d won both starts over fences and coming from this powerful stable is hard to rule out, but does have a lot of weight to carry (11-10) and it won’t be easy having to concede that to the others. We’ve also another Irish raider in the Henry De Bromhead-trained Gin On Lime. She’s won 4 of her 7 starts over fences and actually won the – already mentioned – race that Fancy Foundations fell in last time out. It’s hard to know if she would have still won that race, but the fact she did it so easily (12 lengths) suggests there was a big chance she would have and with jockey Rachael Blackmore 3-from-3 on her over fences this mare will have plenty of ‘girl power’ going for her. The fly in the ointment for the Irish runners though will be the Dan Skelton runner – MY DROGO  – who makes his chasing debut here today. This high-class hurdler G1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree back in April and heads here 4-from-4 over hurdles. Yes, his jumping has to be taken on trust and he’ll lack the experience of the others over fences, but he’s the clear top-rated in the field (155) and also gets weight from the other too. The Skelton yard also won this race last year. So, I’ll take a chance on his jumping and if getting off the mark here over fences looks a really exciting prospect for the Skelton camp this term.


2.55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 3m6f ITV4

17/17 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/17 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/17 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
13/17 – Unplaced in their last race
12/17 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/17 – Had a recent run that season
12/17 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (8 won)
11/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/17 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/17 – Trained by Enda Bolger
6/17 – Favourites that won
Since 2011, we’ve seen 4 past winners win the race again

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A competitive renewal of this ‘marmite race’, with many chances. No runners this year for the Enda Bolger yard that often do well in these cross-country contests, but we’ve still got a strong Irish challenge with Henry De Bromhead sending over two – Plan Of Attack and Balko Des Flos. The former fell in the Kim Muir last March when well-fancied but off just 10-3 could be very dangerous. This will, however, be his first try over this cross-country course. Balko Des Flos landed the 2018 Ryanair Chase here at the Festival, but hasn’t won a race since! He did, however, run an excellent second in the Aintree Grand National back in April so these fences, after that run, are certainly worth a crack. Racheal Blackmore rides, but I’d just be worried that he’s got a fair bit of weight (11-12) and having not won a race since 2018 is another concern. ALPHA DES OBEAUX was fourth (beaten 22l) in the cross-country race at the Festival, so we know the track suits and with just 10-9 in weight he’s interesting for the Gordon Elliott yard. The Martin Keighley yard have Talkischeap and course winner – Back On The Lash, while we’ve also got the 2019 winner of this race – Diesel D’Allier. This French runner is another with a low weight (10-2), but he is also rated 12lbs higher than when winning this. He loves the track though and can’t be discounted easily. But the other pick is the 2020 third – POTTERS CORNER. Yes, he’s no spring chicken at 11, but he’s rated a massive 11lbs lower than when 7 lengths third in this a few years ago. He’ll be fitter for a recent run at Aintree and we know this former Midlands National winner stays well. Regular jockey, Jack Tudor, rides to help by taking off a further 3lbs off his already light 10-5 weight.

 

3.30 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

16/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
16/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
12/16 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/16 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
11/16 – Aged 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
9/16 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Six of the seven runners here were last time out winners. Of that bunch the Gordon Elliott yard send over the promising Off Your Rocco, who has won three of his four starts over hurdles. He stepped up to this trip last time to win well at Limerick and looks sure to run a big race. He does, however, have to give 5lbs away to most of the others and more to some. Therefore, the Paul Nicholls runner – GELINO BELLO – gets the nod. This 5 year-old went into many a notebook last time out at Aintree when dotting up by 6 lengths. Travelling well through that race and jumped okay too. That was his first try over hurdles too, so should have a lot more to come. Blazing Khal is another Irish runner (Charles Byrnes) with a chance after winning well at Galway last month. Current Moods and Glencassley have done nothing wrong to win their last two, but this will be harder, while the same can be said for the Skelton runner – Kayf Hernando – who beat Mister Whitaker, who has won since, at Carlisle last time out.

 

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