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The Chester Cup, run at Chester Racecourse over 2m2f, is the feature race of their three-day May Meeting (4th-6th) – Here at JUICESTORM we take a look back at recent winners and highlights some key betting trends and stats ahead of the 2022 renewal – this year the race will be run on Friday 6th May 2022.
Did you know ? Since 1975 we’ve only had 4 winning Chester Cup favourites win the race
Recent Chester Cup Winners
2021 – Falcon Eight (15/2)
2020 – No Race
2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
2017 – Montaly (16/1)
2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
2014 – Suegioo (10/1)
2013 – Address Unknown (12/1)
2012 – Il De Re (10/1)
2011 – Overturn (11/2)
2010 – Mamlook (7/1 fav)
2009 – Daraahem (7/1)
2008 – Bulwark (33/1)
2007 – Greenwich Meantime (14/1)
2006 – Admiral (28/1)
2005 – Anak Pekan (16/1)
2004 – Anak Pekan (2/1 fav)
2003 – Hugs Dancer (9/1)
2002 – Fantasy Hill (8/1)
Chester Cup Betting Trends
18/19 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/19 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
13/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/19 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/19 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/19 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/19 – Favourites were unplaced
9/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/19 – Had won at the track before
3/19 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/19 – Won their previous race
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/19 – Won by the favourite
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12/1
Key Chester Cup Stats
The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 11 winners came from NH yards
6 of the last 8 winners carried 9st or more
3 of the last 9 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 13 winners
What do the stats say?
Age – In 2016, we saw an 8 year-old land the race, but since 1986 all bar that winner were aged 7 or younger. In more recent years, 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 or younger too, while 14 of the last 19 successful horses were aged 5, 6 or 7. That said, you certainly can’t rule out the 4 year-olds, with the winner in 2019 – Making Miracles – this age, while we’ve had two 4 year-olds go in since 2015. In short, it’s probably best to avoid the older horses (8+) in the race!
Recent Form – With 13 of the last 19 winners having finished unplaced last time out, then don’t be too worried if your fancy heads here without some 1’s, 2’s or 3’s next to it’s name. But having winning form over at least 2m on the flat in the past is something to look for, while having a run within the last two months is another plus – 12 of the last 19 winners ticked this trend.
Weight – Being a handicap, then it’s always worth looking back at past weight stats. 12 of the last 19 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less, but with the last 4 winners and 6 of the last 8 winners carrying 9st or more, then this weight trend might be taking a slight turn in the other direction. Since 1981, only 8 winners have carried more than 9st 2lb to victory, including last year’s winner – Falcon Eight (9-10). However, with 13 of the last 19 winners rated between 93-99, which is, of course, closely linked with the weight stat, could be another angle into the race.
Draw – Most of us know that Chester is one of the tightest flat tracks around, so even over this longer 2m2f trip then the draw can play a big part. It’s normally a race that’s well contested too – in 2021 there were 16 runners – so having a decent early pitch can often be the difference between winning and losing. This is backed up with 12 of the last 19 winners drawn from stalls 7 or lower, but the 2019 winner – Making Miracles – did defy this stat by winning from stall 16. Last year’s winner came from stall 10.
Favourites – It’s not been a great race for favourite backers – since 1975, we’ve only had four winning market leaders and only two in the last 19 runnings. The averaging winning SP in the last 18 years has been 12/1 and with 12 of the last 19 winners priced 10/1 or shorter, then outside the favourite you generally don’t have to look too far down the market to find the winner.
Trainers – I’ve already mentioned this is a race the NH yards often target – in the last 11 renewals we’ve seen four winners from jumping stables take the first prize, while in terms of other yards to note, the Richard Fahey and Ian Williams camps have both won the race twice each since 2007. It’s also a race that popular owner – Dr Marwan Koukash – loves to throw a few arrows at. His grey silks have been responsible for four of the last 13 winners and he’s sure to have some targeted at the race again this year.
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s Chester Cup winner – FALCON EIGHT – will be looking to become the first horse since Anak Pekan (2004/05) to win the Chester Cup in ‘back-to-back’ seasons and with Frankie Dettori riding again will be popular.
This Dermot Weld runner is rated 5lbs higher this time, but beat The Grand Visir, who is back for more too, by 2 lengths that day and has been handed a good draw in 6 – 12 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 7 or lower.
A recent run at Fairyhouse over hurdles will have blown away the cobwebs and can go well again for the shrewd Dermot Weld yard who would have had this race as a target again.
Solent Getaway was a good winner over 2m here last August and has been popular in the betting – gets in with just 8-6 in weight and draw 7 is fine.
Others drawn low are Rajinsky, Coltrane, Reshoun, Land Of Winter and Arcadian Sunrise.
Despite having a lot of winners at this meeting over the years, trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the Chester Cup. He, however, has a live chance this year with Cleveland with Ryan Moore riding, but might have to hope for some luck in-running from draw 10.
The other of interest though is the already-mentioned – COLTRANE (e/w). The Andrew Balding yard won this in 2017 and this 5 year-old, who has a nice draw in 2, will be spot-on for this after a fair second at Kempton (AW) back in March. He gets in with a nice racing weight of 8-12 too and heads here having won 3 of his 4 runs on the turf.
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