1,000 Guineas Free Tips & Betting Trends

1,000 Guineas betting trends and tips

First run back in 1814, the 1,000 Guineas is a Group One flat race run over 1m just for 3 year-old fillies. The contest is one of the five English Classics and staged at Newmarket racecourse in late April or early May each year.

It’s the second of the five English Classics with the 2,000 Guineas run the day before being the first, while winners of this race often go onto run well in that year’s Epsom Oaks the following month – the last horses to land both races in the same season was Kazzia in 2002 and Minding in 2016.

Here at JuiceStorm we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take into the 2022 renewal – this year run on Sunday 1st May.

1000 Guineas Key Stat – 18 of the last 18 1,000 Guineas winners finished in the top three last time out?

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Recent 1,000 Guineas Winners

2021 – Mother Earth (10/1)
2020 – Love (4/1)
2019 – Hermosa (14/1)
2018 – Billesdon Brook (66/1)
2017 – Winter (9/1)
2016 – Minding (11/10 fav)
2015 – Legatissimo (13/2)
2014 – Miss France (7/1)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/1)
2012 – Homecoming Queen (25/1)
2011 – Blue Bunting (16/1)
2010 – Special Duty (9/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (20/1)
2008 – Natagora (11/4 fav)
2007 – Finsceal Beo (5/4 fav)
2006 – Speciosa (10/1)
2005 – Virginia Waters (12/1)
2004 – Attraction (11/2)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (12/1)
2002 – Kazzia (14/1)

Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)

1,000 Guineas Betting Trends

18/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/20 – Had won between 2-3 times before
15/20 – Had won a Group race before
14/20 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
13/20 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
11/20 – Won their previous race
12/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/20 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price
10/20 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
9/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/20 – Favourites unplaced
9/20 – Irish-trained winners
7/20 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/20 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/20 – Previous Group One winners
5/20 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/20 – Won by a US bred horse
4/20 – Won by the favourite
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – French-trained winners
3/20 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/20 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016, Love 2020)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 12.5/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Shadwell have won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 & 2021)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained 7 winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020), Mother Earth (2021)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have won this Sunday’s 1000 Guineas five times in the 6 years (7 times in total) and he’s got another decent hand in 2022 with the Tenebrism  and Tuesday. Top jockey Ryan Moore would have had the choice over the O’Brien duo and the fact he’s picked Tenebrism, then it’s no shock this 3 year-old filly is the shorter price of the pair.

Tenebrism is 2-from-2 and was a top winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes at this track (Newmarket) last September – therefore, the course is okay. But the question mark is the distance as she’s up from 6f to 1m this time – an extra 2 furlongs. But connections clearly feel she’ll see out the extra yardage, but those against her might feel her pedigree suggests it’s going to be a close call.

Taking that into account, the Frankie Dettori-ridden TUESDAY  is worth siding with, being she’s won over a mile already. Frankie also rode the winner of this race for O’Brien 12 months ago  on Mother Earth which underlines that is not always an easy choice for the jockeys to get pick the right horses if they do get riding options.

These  Guineas 3 year-olds can improve very rapidly during this early stages of their careers – therefore,  it probably wasn’t an easy choice for Ryan Moore and he got it wrong last year with Frankie picking up the pieces.

Other 1000 Guineas Runners To Note

Discoveries has shown a decent level of form and is another huge Irish player for the Jessie Harrington stable. Godolphin also have their horses in top form so recent Fred Darling winner (Newmarket) – Wild Beauty  – is another to have on your radar.

Mise En Scene and Cachet  have each-way chances too, but the French runners – ZELLIE and Malavath – are the others that standout. The pair were palced 1st and 2nd (Malavath winning) last time at Deauville but that was run on heavy ground and the better conditions this time might just favour Zellie better.

This Andre Fabre 1000 Guineas entry seems to go on all ground and the step back up to a mile will will pose no issues. The booking of jockey Tom Marquand is a added bonus.

 

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