World Cup Qualification Trading Focus: Sat 2nd Sept 2017

World Cup Football Trading Tips

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Group G

Spain v Italy 19:45

Probably the match of the week with two of the world’s big hitters taking each other on in a game that will almost certainly determine who tops the group and who has to go through the play-offs. The reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw and how Italy would love that result again although they really need to win as Spain are above them on goal difference and are unless Spain slip up in one of the last few games, Italy will have to settle for second place. Their mentality will be to keep it tight and try and win 1-0, that is the Italian way but I think this Spain side are too strong for them. Apart from tournament final stages, the sides have not played each other that often and have only met in Spain in two friendlies, both of which Spain won 1-0. As Italy will keep it tight and Spain could settle for a 0-0 draw, then the obvious call here is Under 2.5 goals which the bookmakers are aware of too and is priced accordingly at 1.57 (4/7). That will be too short for many so there are a couple of other options available including Laying Over 2.5 goals at around 2.50 (6/4) and trading out after 30 minutes for a green book. The downside to this would be an early goal in which case we would have to sit tight. I prefer to stay with my first thought and will try Spain to win 1-0 at 6.00 (5/1) and a half bet on 1-1 at 7.00 (6/1). This basically means by doing the two we are betting at around 4.30 (100/30) for 1-0 and 3.00 (2/1) for 1-1 rather than taking the short price for Unders.

Group D

Wales v Austria 19:45

A must win game for both sides with a draw effectively ending the qualification chances of both. The two of them sit four points behind both Serbia and Ireland and must go for the three points with both those sides having winnable games. The problem for Wales is that they have drawn their last five group games and seem unable to finish sides off even with Gareth Bale. It is probably his performance that will determine the result here and whilst he is getting huge stick in the Spanish press, his performances have been pretty good. He is under huge pressure at Real from the new star Asensio and has been heavily criticised for his lack of Spanish in public despite being here four years. So Bale v Austria, who wins? The game was 2-2 in Vienna and both sides have score in five of six qualifying games so we should get goals, especially if there is an early strike. Wales did win a friendly against Austria in Swansea four years ago by 2-1 and that would send the fans home happy and keep their slim hopes alive and 2-1 is available at 10.00 (9/1). I prefer looking at Over 2.5 goals at 2.34 (11/8) or Both Teams To Score at 2.00 (Evs) with preference for the latter.

Georgia v Rep. of Ireland 17:00

It is likely that a draw wouldn’t be a disaster for the Irish but with such a great record against Georgia they must go for the jugular. The two have met eight times since 2003 with Ireland winning all eight and in competitive games in Georgia they have won all three by 2-1. They won 1-0 in Dublin where Georgia were a little unlucky but they have to be the call in this but I’m never keen on betting international sides at odds on, away from home, so we need to look elsewhere. A 1-0 win is the most obvious and would suit but with their record of winning 2-1 at 9.50 (17/2) we should cover that and 2-0 at 7.70 (13/2) for small stakes with a view to trading for a green book.