Saturday 2.30 Hamburg v Darmstadt
Hamburg are usually not a side to trust with your hard earned, but they have hit a patch of form and find themselves needing to win against the worst side in the league, Darmstadt. If they cannot get three points here then they deserve to be in a relegation fight but we are offered odds of around 1.44 for home win which has to be ignored. Darmstadt ended a run of five defeats by beating a Schalke side last week who have Europa League on their minds, but they have yet to get a point away from home this season and that may continue here. Hamburg have not lost in their last nine at home,, seven wins and two draws, scoring in all and conceding in all but three. In six of those games they scored twice but have only scored three or more in one game this season, away at Leipzig! Based purely on the stats, with Darmstadt failing to score in ten of fourteen away, we should try three correct scores. Try quarter stakes on 2-1 (8/1) and 3-0 (10/1) and a half stake on 2-0 (7/1) this gives us returns of between 2/1 and 3/1 if we get the score right.
Saturday 2.30 Ingolstadt v Werder Bremen
The other small bet I am looking at this weekend is the form side in the league, Werder Bremen who are unbeaten in nine games, a run that has put them on the edge of Europa League qualification. Bremen have scored in all bar one game on the road and are rattling in the goals, fourteen in the last six matches on their travels and that power could be too much for the home side. Ingolstadt had also had a little winning run, three on the trot before defeat at Wolfsburg last week. Bremen should be too strong and I have them as slight favourites but we can get around 9/4, 12/5 in a place so we must take that. If you are a little bit more cautious try Laying Ingolstadt at around 2.30 (13/10).
Saturday 3.00 Nottingham Forest v Reading
A game that both need to win so will it become cagey or end to end? I see goals and odds of around 1.83 (5/6) for Over 2.5 goals appeals as an option. Five of the last eight head to head have gone Over 2.5 goals. Forest have conceded a goal at home in all bar four games, Reading have scored in fifteen on the road and in recent games they have been involved in goal fests, five of their last seven away were Over 2.5 goals. We will go Over 2.5 goals and hope for an early goal to set up a cracker.
Sunday 12.00 Aston Villa v Birmingham
Will the new manager affect help Birmingham here, where they just cannot afford to lose in their perilous position. The one game they would not really want is against their arch rivals Aston Villa who would take great pleasure in plunging their neighbours into deeper trouble. These games are hard fought and often close but Villa have the edge at home in recent meetings today. In all competitions, the last seven head to head has seen Under 2.5 goals six times and at Villa Park, the last five meetings today Villa have won four with a 0-0 draw. A surprising stat is that I can find no red card in the last fourteen meetings today and considering the ferociousness of some of the games that is surprising. I have seen quotes of around Evs (2.00) for a home win and it is generally 1.91 (10/11) and for me that is worth a small bet. The pressure is off Villa and they can relax and that may produce their best football, a real worry for Birmingham.
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