Trading Focus La Liga
The Spanish FA do what the English FA should think about adopting, in that they only play the matches that have something resting on them at the same time, rather than the whole programmes as in the Premier League. So the fight for the title takes place at 19.00pm and the Europa League battles take place in the afternoon. This makes the matches this Sunday a little more exciting, apart from the fact that it all looks pretty straightforward for who will win what and who will go down. The relegation is not mathematically sorted but Gijon will need to win and Depor lose on Saturday with a goal swing of eleven goals to change anything at the bottom and that is not going to happen. Real should take care of getting a point at Malaga and Barcelona will beat Eibar but the title will be heading to the capital on Sunday night. That leaves European places for the Europa League as the Champions league positions are sorted so we don’t have much to look at. There are three teams fighting for two places and all three teams, Villarreal, Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad face tough away matches. Villarreal travel for a local derby with Valencia, Bilbao visit Atletico Madrid and Sociedad travel to Celta Vigo. Two of the three are tougher, Valencia will be desperate to stop their local rivals and , Atletico will want to win the last game at the Vicente Calderon stadium so that leaves Sociedad with possibly the easiest task on paper as Celta have little to play for and following defeat to Man Utd in the Europa League semi-final, they seem to be now on the beach, they have lost their last six league matches.
I don’t want you to feel that I am getting out of making a selection so I will tread carefully but a note of caution, we don’t know how up for it the other teams will be. We can only presume that Atletico will want to win their last home game in this stadium and that Valencia will want to stop their local rivals. I will throw in a couple of stats and a suggestion but keep stakes small.
Sunday 21st May 2017
4.45 Valencia v Villarreal
Valencia have won three of the last five head to head in Valencia but Villarreal won last season. Villarreal are capable of nullifying Valencia for long periods, are they capable of scoring themselves? Valencia have won their last two games and were unlucky against Real Madrid the game before. Villarreal have lost just five on the road but three of those were in the last five way. My gut feeling here is that Valencia might hold them to a draw and Villarreal might settle for that if one of the other two are losing late in the game. Bet the Draw at 13/5 (3.60)
4.45 Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao
This is the game which I feel will decide the places as I am sure Simeone will have his men up for the last game in this stadium. The last five head to head has seen four home wins and a draw. Atletico Madrid to win and that Evs (2.00) could prove to be a gift if they are up for it, it might be worth waiting ten minutes and see how they start before stepping in.
4.45 Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad
Celta have switched off and Real Sociedad have it in their own hands although that will be no good if the other two win. All they can do is win and hope. The downside is that they have only won two of the last eight head to head but these are different circumstances. Three of the last four meetings today in Vigo have ended in draws but that may not be good enough and for a side that have won nine on te road they really should win this. I don’t want to take 8/11 (1.73) about the win so would prefer to try small correct scores of 2-0 @10/1 (11.00) and 1-0 @ 17/2 (9.50).
In 2021 TradeHost traded 7,937 Betfair UK, IE, US & AU horse racing and greyhound markets.
2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.