La Liga Sunday 14th May
Once again not many matches to concentrate on here with just a few things to be settled. Relegation is all but sorted with Gijon needing a miracle to stay up. Failure to win both of their games by big margins will see them go down and even then they would need Deportivo and Leganes to lose both of their games. Real Madrid host Sevilla, who are now resigned to Champions League qualification and who have a dismal recent record at the Bernabeu. They have lost their last five visits 4-0, 2-1, 7-3, 4-1 and 3-0 and despite them having a good home record against Real, they cannot be considered here. To decide how Real will go about this is very difficult as they could win 1-0 or 6-0 with a lot depending on how early they score and how Sevilla approach the game. For that reason we do not need to trade the game.
The same applies to Barcelona games at present and they travel to Las Palmas. They have lost six of their last eight and the only thing that has saved them from a relegation battle is their strong home form winning nine and losing just three of their eighteen at home. That said, Barcelona will be too strong in a game they have to win. Three recent head to head have all gone the way of the Catalan giants and I would be surprised if LP score this time. If you think the same Barca to win to Nil is around 2.25 (5/4).
The real tight end to the season in La Liga is for the Europa League places with Sociedad, Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal all in with a shout. Villarreal are in pole position and could conceivably catch Sevilla for fourth but that is unlikely as Sevilla should get a point from their final two games. Villarreal play Deportivo at home and Valencia away, Bilbao play Leganes at home and Atletico away with Sociedad hosting Malaga before a trip to Celta Vigo.
19.00 Real Sociedad v Malaga
Only two of the last eight and one of the last seven meetings today have gone Over 2.5 goals and this could be another tight affair between two in form teams. Sociedad have won their last three at home and have lost just one of their last six at home. Malaga have won their last four and also won six of their last seven, including two of their last three away matches. In San Sebastian, recent head to head games have ended 1-1, 0-1 and 0-0 also suggesting a close game. Sociedad must win but Malaga are playing really well and will fancy their chances. Malaga are too big at 5/1 (6.00) and has to be bet to a small stake. The other option is to Lay Sociedad at 8/15 (1.53) which is far too short and is based on their need to win, not on the ability of the two teams at present.
19.00 Athletic Bilbao v Leganes
The two met in January and played a goalless draw but I cannot see this ending the same way. Bilbao must win as they go to Atletico in their final game and Leganes are now all but safe so may not provide stiff opposition. They have not won in fourteen away, managing just four draws in those games. Bilbao have won six of their last eight and just one of their last seventeen at home, in fact they have lost just twice at home, to Real and Barca. I’m going to suggest splitting stakes and betting Athletic Bilbao -1 on the handicap at 2.20 (6/5) and -2 on the handicap at 4.00 (3/1).
19.00 Villarreal v Deportivo
Six of the last eight head to head have been under and Villarreal will settle for a 1-0 win here. They have won three of the last four head to head at home, two by the 1-0 scoreline. Deportivo are not mathematically safe but one point from their last two matches will see them stay up so will set their stall out here for that point. Can Villarreal break them down? They have won four of their last five at home and Deportivo have won only once in nine games so Villarreal are the form team. Depor have managed six draws away from home and that is the best they can hope for but I see Villarreal grinding out a 1-0 win or possibly 2-0, both 8/1 (9.00), the latter is preferred if they score early enough.
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