Trading Focus La Liga
Sociedad nearly blew it in midweek when letting Valencia back into the game after leading 3-0 but held on to take a valuable three points. They are one of the sides that we will look at again this weekend as once again, many matches have little meaning.
Saturday 29th April 2017
12.00 Real Sociedad v Granada
Sociedad have won the last three meetings today to nil and that reflects the difference in class between the two. Granada have often flattered to deceive this season but ultimately they have not been good enough and deserve to go down. They have managed two draws and a win in their last five meetings today at the Anoeta but this game is so important to the home side that I cannot see that happening here. Sociedad got off to a quick start at Valencia and Granada have not won in nine matches and not in seventeen away so expect the same again from the hosts. Granada have conceded 72 goals this season with only Osasuna worse and they have scored just 27, the lowest in the league. Assuming that Granada once again struggle in front of goal we could look at a couple of correct scores as the hosts are unbackable at around 1.16 (1/6). We can bet 2-0 and 3-0 at 6/1 (7.00) each meaning we are getting 7/2 (4.50) for our money and that appeals as better value.
3.15 Real Madrid v Valencia
This would appear to be a stroll for Real as Valencia look finished for the season although they did rally against Sociedad in midweek. Real had a great victory at Deportivo which was a fine bounce back from defeat by Barcelona. The head to head stats show that Valencia have enjoyed their trips here in recent seasons, with four draws in their last five visits. At this stage of the season though, do they really have it in them to get totally up for this and thwart Real? A safer play here has got to be the goals, in the last eight meetings today of the two, two were Over 2.5 goals, three Over 3.5 goals and three Over 4.5 goals. As Over 4.5 goals is now a shade of odds on, is that really any value? We know that Real games have some really wacky scorelines, so if we play correct scores we can be out of it early in the game but if we keep to small stakes then it gives us an interest and trading opportunities. Try Real Madrid to win 5-1 @ 14/1 and 5-2 @25/1. The other option available is Real Madrid to win and both teams to score as Valencia have scored the last seven times the two have met. That is available at around 1.80 (4/5), and one further option if you think Real will score four or more is to bet any other home score on the exchange correct score market at 1.72 (8/11).
Of the other matches, none really appeal, Sevilla still need points to confirm Champions League football and visit Malaga on Monday night to play a team that they have a good recent record over with four wins and a draw in the last five meetings today. Whilst they should win, I will not be rushing to take odds on about them and will just watch the match and enjoy. Espanyol v Barcelona is a local Derby but Barca will win as they have done in nine of their last ten league meetings today, at Espanyol the home side have failed to score in this fixture in the last four meetings today. Barcelona at around 2.30 (13/10) at -2 on the handicap is an option.
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