Trading Focus: La Liga 11th/12th March

La Liga

Latest posts by Steve Taylor (see all)

Saturday 11th March

3.15 Sevilla v Leganes

The question here is will Sevilla have the UCL game with Leicester on their minds and lose concentration here? I think winning La Liga is still possible so three points here is vital and Leganes have not won in nine away, six of those games they failed to score. Are they good things to thump Sevilla? I can see Sevilla leading and shutting up shop as they have done in the past which brings Unders into the equation particularly as Sevilla only average two goals a game at home. One possible fly in the ointment is that Sevilla can score goals, particularly away, but at home tend to “win” the game then hold out. I don’t like Unders as the bet is never won until the final whistle (Barca on Wed night!) but for those of you trading it is clearly an option. Sevilla 1-0 and 2-0 must also be real players if we believe Leganes will again not score but Sevilla have won 2-1 in four of twelve at home. Sevilla, to win 1-0 or 2-0.

Saturday 11th March

7.45 Granada v Atletico Madrid

It should be impossible to tip up a side away from home at 1.50 (1/2) as so many things would have to be in their favour but in this case all stats and current form point to Atleti winning. Despite that they are not a side that I want to bet at those odds despite Granada being woefully poor. In eleven meetings today, Atletico have won nine with two draws and Granada have only scored twice. Atletico Madrid also don’t have a problem in games before the Champions League as they have only lost to Real Madrid on a weekend before a game and thumped Granada 7-1 earlier in the season before a trip to Russia. I am trying every way to find a way that they can fall down and clutching at straws, stats say that the two draws were in Granada, both 0-0, and also that Granada were thrown a small lifeline in midweek when Deportivo failed to win leaving them and Leganes five points above Granada who sit third bottom giving the Andalusian side some small hope of staying up. Back to the game and a small bet on Atletico to win to nil might be the way forward at around 2.25 (5/4).

Sunday 12th March

11.00 Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao

The Basque Derby with the added spice of the promise of European football next season as Sociedad sit 5th and Athletic are 7th. The game will be fiercely fought which you would think brings a red card into play but there have been only three red cards on the last fourteen meetings today between the two making odds of around 1.80 for “No sending off” appear value. Not a market for me though as one rash goal saving tackle means red and a losing bet. The head to head also shows tight games with four of the last six ending level, three by the 1-1 score. In recent seasons Sociedad have had the better of this fixture at home with two wins and two draws, Bilbao scoring just once in those four games.  I see this as a negative game from both sides, don’t lose being the main aim and with Bilbao shy in front of goal away, (not scored in last five) it will be up to the hosts to break them down. That will not be easy and the Unders at around 1.76 is the obvious play.

Sunday 12th March

 5.30 Celta De Vigo v Villarreal

 This is one of those games where the stats tell you two different things and make it difficult to find a trade. Celta games at home produce goals, ten of twelve Over, but Villarreal away games are dull, only three of twelve Over. Celta are in decent form at home, unbeaten in four and have won eight of twelve at home. Villarreal are unbeaten in six away and have won four and drawn six of twelve away. Can Celta break down a solid Villarreal? Sevilla, Sociedad and Real Madrid, three of the top five couldn’t beat them at home and that is the size of Celta’s task. The last four head to head in Vigo saw three draws and a win for Villarreal with three Under 2.5 goals. Expect a tight game with Villarreal not losing leaving you plenty of trading options. Preference for me would be to Lay the home side.

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