Not a very inspiring set of fixtures this weekend so it may be best to keep stakes lower unless you really fancy one of the stats below.
Friday 29th September 2017
QPR v Fulham
These two have met only four times at this level in recent years with three of the four games Over 2.5 goals and all four games seeing both teams score. Fulham won 3-1 and also secured a 1-1 draw in the two matches at Loftus Road. Fulham look to have recovered after a small blip when losing at Burton, their only loss in six and with QPR drawing three of their last four, we look in for a tight one. Both sides have scored in eight of ten matches this season so we should get goals and it might be worth chancing Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 (8/11) if you must play.
Saturday 30th September 2017
Cardiff v Derby
I am at a loss to understand the odds on this game as at the time of writing there is plenty of 2.10 (11/10) available about the home side who are top of the league and who have lost just one of ten matches. Derby on the other hand have struggled and despite a 1-1 draw at Brentford in midweek it would take a leap of faith to bet them here. They had less than 30% possession and failed to get a corner so the chances of coming to Cardiff and attacking them at will look unlikely. Derby have however scored in all away games but even at that you would fancy Cardiff to score more and comfortably saw off Leeds in midweek. Games between the two are usually close with three wins for Derby, three draws and two wins for Cardiff in the last ten meetings. Cardiff have won four and drawn one of their five home games this season. If you don’t want to bet the home side at the price then a perfectly good opportunity is to bet Both Teams To Score at 1.83 (5/6).
Millwall v Barnsley
Millwall have won their last three at home and take on a Barnsley side that have earned just one point away this season. This could be a dull affair and six of the last eight meetings were Under 2.5 goals. At Millwall the scores were 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 and 2-0 so goals could be a premium. For those that do play Unders, 2.00 (Evs) is a fair price particularly from a trading angle.
Hull v Birmingham
Are Birmingham going to have a sudden revival now that Harry Redknapp has gone? Can Hull end a losing run of five? Should we even be looking at a game like this? The answer could be no to all three questions but Hull have had a decent recent record against Birmingham winning four and drawing one of six recent encounters. At odds of around 1.91 (10/11) they can be considered but I think this has the hallmarks of a draw and would prefer a small investment on 1-1 at 7.00 (6/1).
Middlesbrough v Brentford
Middlesbrough had won three and drawn one at home before the midweek defeat by Norwich and have also won all four of the recent head to heads at this level. The question here will be whether they can break down a dogged Brentford side who have managed five draws this season, and have lost just one of their last six. Four of five Middlesbrough home games and three of five Brentford away games were Under 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 goals at around 2.00 (Evs) looks a fair bet for those of you interested in this but my word of warning would be that the whole game could swing on an early goal which would then set the game up to be more open. Another option is to play 1-0 and 2-0 Middlesbrough as a correct score trading option looking for a green book.