Trading Focus: La Liga Fri 5th / Sat 6th May

Once again many games this weekend are non competitive as a lot of teams have nothing to play for. Barcelona should see off Villarreal and Real the same at Granada as the fight for the title continues, but we’ve still a few matches that catch the eye…………………..

Friday 5^th May

20.00 Sevilla v Real Sociedad

The recent H2H in Sevilla 1-2, 1-0, 1-0, 1-2, 1-0

There has been only one draw in the last twelve meetings today of these two so that immediately brings in Lay the draw but let’s look further. Sevilla were heavily beaten at Malaga on Monday night but should keep their Champions League spot however a win is a must here. Real Sociedad have lost three of their last four away but have won their last three games as they look for a Europa League position. This could become really cagey as both do not want to lose and that suggests Unders but an early goal would throw that out of the window particularly if Sociedad got it. In 17 home games Sevilla have been 0-0 at HT in eight of them and 1-0 ahead in three. Sociedad have been 0-0 away at HT on four occasions. Sevilla have not lost in eleven at home and sides coming here often struggle.

In the HT/FT market HT Draw FT Sevilla at 4/1 appeals as in the eight games that were 0-0 at half-time, they went on to win five, drawing the other three. I think Sociedad are good enough to hold out for 45 minutes.

Saturday 6^th May

12.00 Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas

Last chance saloon for Gijon who need to win their last three games and hope that Leganes lose all three. Leganes play on Monday night so Gijon can only try and get the three points and see what happens. There has been only one recent meeting at this level in Gijon, which the home side won 3-1 and they did at least manage one win and a draw in their last four at home. Las Palmas look like they are on the beach, comfortably safe just below mid-table and they have lost five of their last seven matches, they have lost thirteen of their last sixteen away with no wins. If Gijon could choose a side to play, LP would be the one. So the dilemma is, can we trust Gijon to win when the pressure is on and is there any value at the price? I think they may win but I cannot suggest betting them at 1.57 (4/7) even with free money. It is a shocking price and the bookies have factored in the “must win” element. A couple of options may be worth chancing. Gijon to win 3-1 @12/1 or 3-2 @16/1 for small stakes with a view to trading or we could try Over 3.5 goals at 2.10 (11/10) as 53% of Gijon home games and 53% of Las Palmas away games have gone Over 3.5 goals. There is not much value in the price but this game could open up.