Trading Focus: Champions League Final (Sat 3rd June 2017)

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Steve Taylor

Steve Taylor is a sports trader and accredited exchange course presenter who is currently working as a trader for one of the UK's leading bookmakers.

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Saturday 3^rd June 19.45 kick off

Juventus v Real Madrid, Principality Stadium, Cardiff, Wales

This is a potential cracker from a tactical point of view, but one that may not produce a lot of goals unless Real score early. Juventus are unbeaten in their twelve games in this competition this season and have kept an amazing nine clean sheets. They won nine games and drew three; two of those draws were against Sevilla and Barcelona so they will be undeterred by facing another Spanish side in Real here. Real Madrid kept one clean sheet in their twelve matches, losing just once to city rivals Atletico. Defence is their problem as they leak goals but more often than not get out of jail with their attacking options. Real saw off Napoli in the knockout stages winning both games by 3-1 but Napoli are not as strong as Juventus.

I have looked at the past ten Champions League finals, to try and find some stats that may help. In eight of the last ten finals, both teams scored but only four of those ten games went Over 2.5 goals. In five of the last ten finals, and three of the last five finals the score ended 1-1 at ninety minutes which again fits in with other stats in that games are very close.

In the head to head in European competition, Real won three, there were two draws and Juventus won five. In the last five years four meetings today have ended 1-1, 2-2, 2-1 to Real and 2-1 to Juve, again nothing between them. The game will probably be won by a moment of brilliance and nothing in the world can predict that although the more of those type of players you have in your team, the better your chances. Ronaldo is the obvious contender as he has ten goals in this competition this season, only Messi has more. Benzema and Higuain have five apiece with Dybala four so there are plenty of match winners on the pitch for both sides.

Real must create history to win as no side has defended the trophy since its change to the Champions League in 1992 but as eleven times winners, the club clearly have the pedigree. Juventus are two time winners, but a club of their enormity should have won more so maybe there is a little bit of fragility in the Italian mentality against other big teams. When it comes to tactics, Juventus will probably man mark Ronaldo and will play their normal system, solid in defence and attack at pace. Real will just go out to score goals as that is the way they play and I can see them getting frustrated if they do not get a first half goal. That will suit the Italians and they can go long periods playing as a solid unit with all eleven players able to defend as a team when needed.

So who wins? Will it be Juventus with their solid defence and Higuain’s ability in front of goal or maybe the attacking threat of Real with Cristiano Ronaldo and their slightly dodgy back four? Which team prevails and lifts the trophy?

I would love to see Juventus win 5-3 in an absolute thriller and Buffon finally lift the Champions League Trophy, but being practical that is never going to happen! If Juve are to win, the most likely is by a single goal or even in extra-time or on penalties. I have a feeling that the game will be decided by what happens in the first twenty minutes. If Real Madrid get on top and score then the game has to open up and Juventus have to go with plan B. That could mean a game with a few goals so don’t rule out that option. If Juventus can hold them early and dominate the game defensively then a 1-0 win for them is a real player.

The safest options to go with, if you like betting short, based on past finals is probably Under 2.5 goals which is available at around 1.61 (8/13) but be aware that these two have gone Over 2.5 goals in three of their last four meetings today. We are going to try a couple of other options. Sticking with the stats I am going to go for 1-1 correct score at 6.50 (11/2) and also a bet on both teams to score available at 1.95 (19/20)