Another tough week to find really relevant stats in both of these leagues so if you want to reduce stakes this week that might be a better option. The Bundesliga seems to have some fairly average sides this year and goals are not flowing as they have done in the last couple of seasons. Those who like to play Unders have been doing well but those who know me will know I don’t care for that market much.
5.30 Borussia M’gladbach v Schalke
A fixture that has been good for Gladbach as they have won five of the last six meetings today at home, five of those were Over 2.5 goals. Borussia have been in winning form, Schalke have drawn three of their last four. The stats suggest a home win but I have a feeling Schalke might get a share of the spoils and a draw looks the likeliest outcome and with neither side prolific this season in front of goal, it may be a dull affair.
2.30 Mainz v Wolfsburg
Six recent head to head in Mainz have all been Under 2.5 goals, 2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. In total the last twelve meetings today between the two have seen nine games Under 2.5 goals. Add to that the last four Mainz home games were Under and Wolfsburg have not scored in three of their last four away and Unders looks a fair call.
4.30 Hamburg v Hertha Berlin
There have been no draws in the last eight meetings today between the two and seven of those eight games were won to Nil. Hertha won six of those eight games but are they playing well enough to win here? Hertha have lost their last four away but with Hamburg getting thrashed 8-0 at Bayern last week they will fancy their chances of three points on the road.
3.00 Derby v Barnsley
Derby are in freefall and the manager refuses to recognise that 4-3-3 is no longer the answer in this division, it does not work. Barnsley are on an excellent run away from home, winning four and drawing one of their last six away. Against a side lacking confidence if they get in front they will be tough to beat. They do not have the best record at Pride Park but at odds of around 4/1 they are worth chancing.
3.00 Sheff Wed v Norwich
The three previous meetings today at this level ended 0-0, 2-0 and 0-0 but both sides have been scoring goals; both have gone Over 2.5 goals in four of their last five. Just over half of Sheff Wed home games and over three quarters of Norwich away games have gone Over 2.5 goals so that is the way to go.
5.30 Huddersfield v Newcastle
Newcastle have had a tough week nut took three valuable points at Brighton in midweek and have now not lost in nine games. Huddersfield are unbeaten in their last seven so will be no pushovers but it will be interesting to see if they are affected by a 5-1 beating by Man City in the Cup midweek. They did win 2-1 away at Newcastle earlier in the season but I can only see the Geordies not losing here. Either Lay Huddersfield or Back Newcastle depending on whether you want to keep the draw onside.
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