Trading Focus: Bundesliga and English Championship Sat 29th/Sun 30th April

Bundesliga and English Championship

Latest posts by Steve Taylor (see all)


Once again we can only really look at certain games as we have no way of knowing which sides have switched off and which players are still playing for contracts etc next season.  With that in mind we will tread carefully.

Saturday 29th April 2017

2.30 Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin

It is remarkable to find Werder Bremen challenging for a Europa League place after their horrific start losing eight of their first eleven games. They are on a ten match unbeaten run, winning eight of those including four away. Hertha Berlin have hit a wall and dropped out of challenging for a Champions League place and could now miss out on Europe completely. They have been superb at home but have lost their last eight away and Bremen will really fancy this. They have a good record against Hertha and in the last eight meetings today in Bremen, they have won seven and drawn one. Overall the last ten head to head, Bremen have won five and drawn three. One note of caution is that Hertha also need the points so this will be no pushover. I would not put anyone off betting Werder Bremen at Evs (2.00) but I am going to suggest three correct scores as trading options. Try Bremen 2-1 @8/1, Bremen 3-1 @14/1 and a saver on 2-2 @14/1.

2.30 Darmstadt v Freiburg

For a side that had lost seventeen of their previous twenty league games, Darmstadt suddenly produced two brilliant performances to stun Schalke and Hamburg. That sums up football betting, you can never predict sides having complete off days or sides thinking they are Barcelona for 90 minutes! Anyway, enough of that,, Freiburg need a win as they along with Bremen look to overhaul Hertha Berlin for the Europa League spots. Freiburg have won three of their last four and won the reverse fixture 1-0, the only top level meeting between the two. Darmstadt concede in most games and have done so in the last thirteen and Freiburg have conceded in twelve of fifteen away. Freiburg can be backed at 2.25 (5/4) and for a side needing to win that is fair, but Over 2.5 goals appeals more at 1.80 (4/5) as the game nay become stretched particularly if Darmstadt score.

Sunday 30th April 2017

2.30 Augsburg v Hamburg

A real “six-pointer” with both sides dangerously close to relegation and a point not really being any good to either, although at the end of the day, that might look good at 4.15 on Sunday depending on other results. Neither can rely on that and must go for a win with Hamburg in slightly better recent form, Augsburg with one win in eight. There has not been a draw in the last ten meetings today of the two and Augsburg have won six, Hamburg four. The last three head to head in Augsburg have gone Over 3.5 goals and I think this could see goals, particularly if one side goes ahead early. Hamburg games have had goals this season, 63% Over 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals at Evs (2.00) is the call here.


English Championship

Just one game to look at here as it has thrown up some remarkable stats.

Saturday 29th April 2017

3.00 Ipswich v Sheff Wed

I am often asked about stats and I appreciate some people believe they are irrelevant and that is a matter for personal choice. There are always two ways to look at a stat, e.g. There has been no draw between Side A and Side B in ten meetings today. Does that mean the stat will carry on or does it mean it is more likely to happen now as it hasn’t in recent times? It can be debated either way. The remarkable stats I found here were that in the last eight meetings today between the two, four were 1-1 draws and four ended 2-1. Ipswich won three of those and Wednesday one. Ipswich have had ten draws from twenty two games, Sheff Wed six from twenty two but more interestingly five Ipswich home games and five Wednesday away games also ended 1-1. Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last three away and have won their last five games. They need the three points in their play-off quest and I would fancy them to win but not sure that at Evs they are worth the risk. Try Over 2.5 goals @2.25 and a saver on 1-1 @6/1!!

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