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Trading Focus – 11th-12th February 2017 – The best of the action from the German Bundesliga and the English Championship covered from our trading team……………..
Bayer Leverkusen v E Frankfurt
The last four head to head have all been Over 2.5 goals. There has been one draw
in the last twelve meetings today which clearly brings in Lay the draw although as I have
mentioned in the past, if something has not happened for a long time, some traders
believe that in something like a football match, it may be more likely to happen,
overdue. I wouldn’t argue either way, I am just here to pass on some stats and give
you an idea of how I think the game will go. Leverkusen are one win one draw and
three losses in their last five at home, four of five Over, with Frankfurt two wins, one
draw and two losses in their last five away, two of the five being Over. I prefer to go
along the goals route here.
Werder Bremen v Borussia M’gladbach
In the last ten meetings today seven have gone Over 2.5 goals, in Bremen, 2-1, 0-2, 1-1, 4-
0 and 2-2. Bremen have not been great at home winning just three with one draw
and M’gladbach have won just once on the road, last week. A game we really
shouldn’t be playing as there are too many imponderables but if forced it would be
Schalke v Hertha Berlin
A strange correct score stat here has seen four games finish 2-0 in the last seven
meetings today, four home games and one away. At home, Schalke have won the last
eight head to head but are not in the same form this season. They have won five and
drawn one of ten at home whilst Hertha won twice and drawn three of ten away. A
tight game in prospect with the stats pointing towards Schalke but Hertha will be a
handful. Schalke just, by the odd goal in what will probably be 1-0 or 2-1.
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
This is a strange game as I want to bet against the home side who have struggled on
their own patch whilst Hoffenheim score freely away. In the last eight head to head,
there has been no away win with five of those eight being Over 2.5 goals. The four in
Wolfsburg finished 4-2, 3-0, 2-1 and 2-2 but I just cannot see the home side winning
by scoring plenty of goals, they have won just two of nine at home. On current form it
has to be Hoffenheim but a Lay of Wolfsburg is the best option here as Hoffenheim
have drawn five on the road
Freiburg v Koln
In nine Bundesliga meetings today there has been just one away win. At home Freiburg
have won six and lost three with no draws, Koln away have won three drawn four
and lost three. Freiburg’s last six home games have seen five go Over but Koln are
tighter on the road with three of their last six going Over. I find it hard to play goals
here and a Freiburg win is possibly the best trade to get out if they lead.
Leeds v Cardiff
In the last seven head to head there has been no draw. Cardiff have won on five of
their last seven visits to Elland Road, three times by 1-0. Leeds have won their last
six home games all to Nil and Cardiff have lost five of their last nine away. Current
form versus a strong stat, which one? Leeds have been really impressive but the
Cardiff stat does not tell the full story as they are improving and deserved a point at
both Brighton and Reading. Many will see value in Leeds at Evs but it could be worth
a small Lay with a view to trading out.
Derby v Bristol City
In the last eight head to head, Derby have won five with two draws and the four
games in Derby ended 4-0, 3-0, 2-1 and 1-0. Derby have won seven and drawn two
of their last nine at home, Bristol City have lost eight and drawn one of their last nine
away. Derby rested players in midweek for this and look like a banker home win.
Reading v Barnsley
Just a quick stat for this game, in the last six head to head there have been five
away and one draw and four of the six were Over. Reading at home have won
seven and drawn one of their last eight whilst Barnsley are one of the in-form sides
winning five and drawing one of their last eight away. Anyone fancy risking Laying
Reading? It may pay dividends if trading.
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