La Liga Trading Focus: 8th-10th July 2020

La Liga Football Tips

Wednesday 8th July 2020

Getafe v Villarreal 

A clash of the European challengers with the away side in the better form. Recent meetings saw five of the last eight overall head to head finish Under although the last two in Madrid were both Over. Getafe are hard to beat and the obvious shout here is a draw so trade correct scores around 0-0 and 1-1 with the hope of a green book.

 

Getafe 35% Over 2.5 goals   12% Over 3.5 goals

Villarreal 65% Over 2.5 goals   29% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Getafe have drawn four, lost two and won one, Villarreal have won five drawn one and lost one, to Barca. Both have had five games out of seven finish Under 2.5 goals.

 

Barcelona v Espanyol

 

The Barcelona derby and the two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum with a win for Barcelona sending Espanyol down. The last eight meetings saw six games go Over 2.5 goals, surprisingly for a “Derby” game only one red card in those matches. The recent games at Barcelona ended 2-0, 5-0, 4-1, 5-0 and 5-1. Clearly any bet involving Barcelona is priced up spot on by the books and the bookies do not expect Espanyol to score. I think as they have to try and win, they must go for it even if behind so we could chance Barcelona to win and both teams to score at 3.10.

 

Barcelona 65% Over 2.5 goals   50% Over 3.5 goals

Charlton 44% Over 2.5 goals 21% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart, Barcelona have won four but drawn three with four of the seven games Over 2.5 goals, and that has dented their title hopes severely. Espanyol have lost five drawn one and won one, with five of the seven games Under.

 

 

Thursday 9th July June 2020


Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla

 

Yet another big game with European places up for grabs. Usually a tight fixture, the last six overall head to head were all Under 2.5 goals, and this has the look of a close game. There is however, one outstanding statistic and that is that Bilbao have won the last nine head to head at home and on current form that could be significant. It is hard to see them losing so a Lay of Sevilla at 2.40 is the trading angle.

 

Athletic Bilbao 26% Over 2.5 goals   12% Over 3.5 goals

Sevilla 39% Over 2.5 goals   21% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Athletic have won three drawn two and lost two with five of the seven Under 2.5 goals. Sevilla are unbeaten having won two and drawn four, with two of the six games Over 2.5 goals.

 

Eibar v Leganes

 

Leganes are probably relegated although not mathematically, but Eibar need to win to avoid getting dragged into the bottom three. Eibar have won the last three meetings at home 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0. Leganes have not won any of the seven head to head at this level, managing just two draws. Eibar to win at 2.60 and take your stake back if they lead.

 

Eibar 55% Over 2.5 goals   21% Over 3.5 goals

Leganes 41% Over 2.5 goals   9% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Eibar have won two, drawn two and lost two with three Over and three Under. Leganes have won one, drawn two and lost four with three Over and four Under.

 

 

Friday 10th July 2020


Real Madrid v Alaves

 

Real just need to keep winning to grab the title and this looks like an easy fixture as they have won all games since the break. In seven recent head to head, six were won by Real and one by Alaves. In Madrid, the games ended 3-0, 4-0 and 3-0 and six of the seven overall head to head were also Over 2.5 goals. Real to win but Alaves need points so they might not win as easily as people think. Try Real to win and Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, it is not a huge price but if they just nick a 2-1 win, we will be successful. The alternative of Real -2 on the handicap at 2.75 would be a problem if Alaves scored, as Real have not scored more than two in their last five games.

 

Real Madrid 47% Over 2.5 goals   29% Over 3.5 goals

Alaves 38% Over 2.5 goals   12% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Real Madrid have won all seven, with four Under 2.5 goals and three Over. Alaves have been poor and lost six with one win, five of the seven games were Under 2.5 goals.  

Since the restart Sevilla are unbeaten with four draws and two wins, four games Under 2.5 goals and two Over. Eibar have won two, drawn two and lost one, three were Over and two Under. They are now unbeaten in four.

 

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