La Liga Trading Focus: 4th-6th July 2020

La Liga Football Tips

Saturday 4th July 2020

Celta Vigo v Real Betis

 

This fixture often produces goals, five of the last eight were Over 2.5 goals, but the games in Vigo are usually the opposite, the last four ended 0-1, 3-2, 0-1 and 1-1. Betis can take heart from just one defeat in those four, but on current form there is only one winner, Celta, who have won two and drawn two of their last five. They need points as they are still fighting relegation, but one more win should see them safe. Although they got beaten 5-1 in midweek, anyone who saw the game will know that it all hinged on possibly the worst penalty decision ever at 0-0, remarkably not overturned on VAR, and their heads had gone after that. It is probably safest to stay with goals, Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is the best option.

 

Celta Vigo 36% Over 2.5 goals   30% Over 3.5 goals

Real Betis 62% Over 2.5 goals   31% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Celta have won two drawn two and lost two with three Under and three Over 2.5 goals. Betis have lost three of their five games, two over and three Under.

 

Valladolid v Alaves

Only three recent meetings at this level with two wins for Alaves and a 2-2 draw. Two of the games were Over 2.5 goals. Both are probably safe, and a draw might “suit” the two of them. Both play in midweek, but whatever those outcomes, this promises to be a tight game, especially as Alaves have lost their last three. Both teams to score might be the best way to go here at 2.25.

 

Valladolid 28% Over 2.5 goals   9% Over 3.5 goals

Alaves 41% Over 2.5 goals   12% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Valladolid have drawn three with a win and a loss, four of the five Under 2.5 goals. Alaves have lost four of five, two Over and three Under.

 

Sunday 5th July 2020


Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid

 This might not be as easy for Real as many will think based on the current prices. Four of the last five overall head to head were Under 2.5 goals and four ended level, including the last two in Bilbao. Real will want to keep the newly opened gap over Barcelona and will probably keep it tight early on. I think the 1.80 both teams to score is worthy of consideration but prefer the trading option of Under 2.5 goals at 2.00.

 

Athletic Bilbao 28% Over 2.5 goals   12% Over 3.5 goals

Real Madrid 50% Over 2.5 goals   31% Over 3.5 goals

Since the restart Real have won all five games, three Over and two Under whilst Athletic have won two drawn two and lost one, to Barca, with three Over and two under.

 

Espanyol v Leganes

Seven recent head to head at this level with four wins for Espanyol and three for Leganes, no draws. Five of the seven were Under 2.5 goals. The games at Espanyol ended 1-0, 0-1 and 3-0. Both are almost certainly relegated so this is possibly a no play game, but while there is still a small possibility of escape, both should go for the win and Espanyol at home are worth a small interest at 2.62 trading for the stake back if they lead.

 

Espanyol 44% Over 2.5 goals   22% Over 3.5 goals

Leganes 42% Over 2.5 goals   9% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Espanyol have lost three, won one and drawn one, four were Under 2.5 goals. Leganes have lost four and drawn two, three Over and three Under.

 

Villarreal v Barcelona

Barcelona are now at the stage where they must win every game, no slip ups. As we saw in the Atletico game, the pressure is on and despite Atletico having a bad win record against Barca they managed the draw. This could be a similar case with Villarreal not having beaten Barcelona in the last twenty-one attempts, but managing six draws, three of those in the last four head to head at home. There were also red cards in three of those four matches. Five of the last eight overall head to head were Over and this looks certain to have goals. Barcelona cannot be bet at 1.70 on current form so Over 3.5 goals at 2.50 appeals as a trading angle as both need to come out firing.

 

Villarreal 66% Over 2.5 goals   28% Over 3.5 goals

Barcelona 64% Over 2.5 goals   48% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Villarreal are unbeaten winning four and one draw. Four of the five games were Under 2.5 goals. Barcelona are also unbeaten with three wins and three draws, with three Over and three Under.

 

Monday 6th July 2020


Sevilla v Eibar

The last five head to head were all Over 2.5 goals with four of them Over 3.5 goals. Sevilla have won three of the last four head to head at home, but last season the game ended 2-2. Eibar must continue their recent form as they still need points, Sevilla also need to win to keep in a Champions League place. Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 looks a solid trading play.

 

Sevilla 39% Over 2.5 goals   21% Over 3.5 goals

Eibar 56% Over 2.5 goals   22% Over 3.5 goals

Since the restart Sevilla are unbeaten with four draws and two wins, four games Under 2.5 goals and two Over. Eibar have won two, drawn two and lost one, three were Over and two Under. They are now unbeaten in four.

 

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