Tuesday 30th June 2020
Leganes v Sevilla
In seven recent head to head, four were Over 2.5 goals, Sevilla won three with two wins Leganes and two draws. Sevilla were held to a 1-1 draw at the weekend and Leganes lost to a very late winner at Osasuna. Both need the points for different reasons, Sevilla for a Champions League place, Leganes for their desperate attempt to avoid relegation. Three recent meetings in Leganes ended 1-1, 2-1 and 2-3. With both needing the win, Sevilla will be popular at 2.10 but I prefer chancing both teams to score at the same price, 2.10 as a better value option.
Leganes 41% Over 2.5 goals 9% Over 3.5 goals
Sevilla 38% Over 2.5 goals 22% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Sevilla are unbeaten with a win and four draws, four of the five games Under 2.5 goals. Leganes have lost three and drawn two, with three Under and two Over.
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
This is a huge game for both sides following Barca’s slip up at the weekend, and despite Atletico’s rivalry with Real, they will want to win here. The problem is that Atletico have not won in nineteen head to head, managing just five draws. Barca have won four of the last five meetings at home, two Over 2.5 goals, and the last five overall head to head were all Under. Barca would settle for a 1-0 win, but they can never play that way, so with Atletico unbeaten in ten, the task will not be easy. I think Atletico can grab a goal and will chance Barca to win and both teams to score at 4.00. This game might be more attacking than would normally be expected as Barcelona must go for the three points.
Barcelona 62% Over 2.5 goals 47% Over 3.5 goals
Atletico Madrid 28% Over 2.5 goals 19% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Barcelona have won three and drawn two, Atletico won four and drawn one. Both sides have had two of five games Over 2.5 goals.
Wednesday 1st July 2020
Valencia v Athletic Bilbao
Athletic have come back a different side since the break and are looking a little more attacking in their approach. Valencia are the opposite and are struggling. Five of the last six overall head to head were Under 2.5 goals and that could continue here. Valencia have won the last three meetings at home by 2-0, 3-2 and 2-0 and what they wouldn’t give for three points here. Both have a chance of European football next season and on current form, Bilbao are the most likely. With home advantage I’m just going to come down on the side of Valencia as they are much better at home, so bet them at 2.40 and take back your stake if they lead.
Valencia 45% Over 2.5 goals 19% Over 3.5 goals
Athletic Bilbao 28% Over 2.5 goals 12% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Athletic have won two drawn two and lost to Barca. Two were Over 2.5 goals. Valencia have lost two won one and drawn one, with one Over 2.5 goals.
Real Sociedad v Espanyol
A fixture that usually produces goals, and how Sociedad need them. Five of the last eight head to head have been Over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in the last four head to head in San Sebastian. If Sociedad are going to get back on track, then this is the perfect fixture against Espanyol who have won one in eight. Sociedad have lost their last three scoring just one goal so taking 1.80 is probably not wise, although that price could look good if they click. I think I would rather go against the stats and go with Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 as a trading angle and if Sociedad do get it all together, we could easily see a few goals.
Real Sociedad 61% Over 2.5 goals 23% Over 3.5 goals
Espanyol 45% Over 2.5 goals 23% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Sociedad have lost three and drawn one, with one Over 2.5 goals and Espanyol have won one drawn one and lost two, also with one game Over 2.5.
Real Madrid v Getafe
Barcelona’s slip up has let Real in with a real chance of the title, and this home game, even though not in the Bernabeu, is a must win. Despite it being a local derby, Real have won the last four at home easily, 2-0, 3-1, 4-1 and 7-3 and I do not see them slipping up here. Six of the last eight overall head to head were Over 2.5 goals and that should occur again here, although you won’t get rich on that! Getafe find winning difficult with just one win in eight. Chance Over 3.5 goals at 3.00 as a trading angle.
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