La Liga Trading Focus: 26th-28th June 2020

La Liga Football Tips

Friday 26th June 2020

Sevilla v Valladolid

There have been only three recent meetings and Sevilla won all three to Nil and all three were Under 2.5 goals. Sevilla must keep winning to ensure Champions League football and Valladolid probably need another couple of wins to be safe. Valladolid draw a lot of games, twelve so far and that will probably be the target here, not to lose. Sevilla have tightened their defence up of late and I can see them winning this 1-0 or 2-0 so the 2.30 Sevilla to win to Nil is the shout.

Sevilla 37% Over 2.5 goals   20% Over 3.5 goals

Valladolid 30% Over 2.5 goals   10% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Sevilla have won one and drawn two with all three Under 2.5 goals. Valladolid have won one drawn one and lost one, all three Under 2.5 goals.

 

Saturday 27th June 2020

Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca

Just the one recent head to head which ended 0-0 in Mallorca back in September. Athletic have found a bit of form albeit they were lucky to beat Betis who missed a late penalty. They are unbeaten in five and are probably safe from relegation. Mallorca are not! They are two points ahead of Leganes, so every point is vital. The obvious shout here is Under 2.5 goals although the books have factored that into the price. Try Under 1.5 goals at 3.00 and hope to trade out 20-25 minutes if still 0-0.

 

Athletic Bilbao 27% Over 2.5 goals   10% Over 3.5 goals

Mallorca 47% Over 2.5 goals   27% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Bilbao are unbeaten with two draws and a win, Mallorca have lost two and drawn one. Both sides have had one of their three games Over 2.5 goals.

 

Celta Vigo v Barcelona

Barcelona need to keep winning, but they have looked anything but convincing so far and despite dominating possession against Sevilla, they never really looked like winning. Add to that Celta won 6-0 against Alaves and the fact that Barca have a shocking recent record in Vigo, and we may have the possibility of an upset. Seven of the last nine overall head to head have gone Over 3.5 goals and the last four in Vigo ended 2-0, 2-2, 4-3 and 4-1, with even a Copa del Rey game between the two ending 1-1 there. Barca may well have been shorter than 1.60 if they were in better form and I prefer to take a chance on Over 3.5 goals at 2.75 with a view to trading.

Celta Vigo 33% Over 2.5 goals   27% Over 3.5 goals

Barcelona 63% Over 2.5 goals   47% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Celta have won one lost one and drawn one with one game Over 2.5 goals. Barcelona have won two and drawn one with also one game Over 2.5 goals.

 

Atletico Madrid v Alaves

Atletico continue in good form; their style is not pretty, but it is effective and Alaves who are hit and miss will be in for a tough afternoon. Alaves are probably safe but another few points would make sure. This is not a good fixture for them with seven recent head to head seeing three draws and four wins for Atleti. Five of the seven were Under and that fits with what we expect here, but there is not a lot of value at 1.70. I’m going to suggest a bit of a chancy trade here, Lay Atletico at 1.33 and hope that Alaves can nick a goal or hold them for 60 minutes so that we can trade out for a profit.

 

Atletico Madrid 27% Over 2.5 goals   20% Over 3.5 goals

Alaves 40% Over 2.5 goals   13% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Atletico have won two and lost one with one game Over 2.5 goals. Alaves have won one and lost two with just one game Over 2.5 goals.

 

 

Sunday 28th June 2020

Villarreal v Valencia

A local derby with a lot to play for as both teams chase a European place for next season. Games between the two are usually tight with seven of the last ten meetings Under 2.5 goals including the last four at Villarreal. This game has 0-0 or a single goal victory written all over it, so trade correct scores around 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 looking to trade a green book.

Villarreal 67% Over 2.5 goals   27% Over 3.5 goals

Valencia 47% Over 2.5 goals   20% Over 3.5 goals

Since the restart Villarreal have won all three by 1-0. Valencia have won one drawn one and lost one, with one game Over 2.5 goals

 

Espanyol v Real Madrid

If Espanyol do not start winning soon, they will be relegated within a couple of weeks, and this is a tough as it gets. They managed to beat a ten-man Alaves side but have been poor in the other games. Real have won eleven of the last twelve head to head including four of the last five in Barcelona. In those five games, three were Over 4.5 goals. Real have started in fair form and have won all three, giving the impression that they are going to explode into action at any time. This may be the game that happens, so Real to win and Over 3.5 goals at 3.25 is the call here.

Espanyol 47% Over 2.5 goals   23% Over 3.5 goals

Real Madrid 53% Over 2.5 goals   33% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Espanyol have won one drawn one and lost one, with one game Over 2.5 goals. Real Madrid have won all three with all three Over 2.5 goals.

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