Friday 23rd August 2019
Granada v Sevilla
Four of the last six meetings have gone Over 2.5 goals, and two of the last three in Granada. Those three games saw both teams score. Sevilla looked solid enough at Espanyol and may be tougher to beat this season. Granada will have been happy enough with a point at Villarreal especially being 4-2 down but they will need to defend better if they are to stay in La Liga. I think Sevilla could win at 2.0 but the better option has to be Both Teams To Score at 1.73
Saturday 24th August 2019
Real Madrid v Real Valladolid
Not surprisingly, Real Madrid have won five and drawn one of the last six head to head. In Madrid they won the three most recent games by 2-0, 4-0 and 4-3. A winning start at Celta was the perfect way to silence the critics but the loss of Hazard is a huge blow. They should still have enough to win this, and maybe Bale will take the opportunity to win over the fans again. Real Madrid to win and Over 3.5 goals is 2.10 which is not huge value but is a likely scenario.
Celta Vigo v Valencia
A game where the stats suggest both teams should score, the last three meetings in Vigo and the last six overall head to head all saw both find the net. Last weekend both teams scored and conceded, and sometimes it is about keeping it simple so the 1.70 about that outcome looks fair. It would be difficult to argue that Valencia were value at 2.30 as this promises to be a tight game.
Getafe v Athletic Bilbao
Bilbao had a deserved victory last week against Barcelona and will be full of confidence for the trip to the capital. Three of the last four head to head ended level with four of the last four meetings being Under 2.5 goals. Bilbao have won on three of their last five trips to Getafe, with one draw. The stats suggest that Bilbao should just edge a close game and the bookmakers see it the same way. It is taking a chance, but Bilbao at 3.00 as a trading option appeals to a small stake with a view to trading out if they lead.
Sunday 25th August 2019
Alaves v Espanyol
In six recent meetings, four have been Under 2.5 goals with the three games in Alaves ending 2-1, 1-0 and 0-1. Alaves won their opening game by a single goal whilst Espanyol were beaten at home by Sevilla. The stats suggest Unders but the bookies have that covered so a small correct score trade around 1-0 and 1-1 might offer trading options.
Mallorca v Real Sociedad
The first meeting for six years so head to head is not very relevant, but one stat might be useful here, the last nine meetings between these two have ended in home wins. Mallorca had an excellent return to La Liga with a 2-1 win and Sociedad picked up a good point at Valencia. If this was later in the season, Sociedad would probably be shorter in price, but the bookmakers are taking that into account. I would not want to back them at 2.40 and think we can find better value in Over 2.5 goals at 2.10
Barcelona v Real Betis
The last three head to head were all away wins and all were Over 4.5 goals. Seven of the last ten overall head to head were Over 2.5 goals with four of the last five in Barcelona being Over 3.5 goals. This game does scream goals and Over 3.5 goals at 2.00 and Over 4.5 goals at 3.20 can both be backed as trading options.
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