Sunday 19th July 2020
Just a brief trading focus on the last game of the season, although for those of you who like Laying, there are some very short prices about times who “need to win”. Real are deserved champions and Mallorca and Espanyol are relegated, with a few things still to be determined.
Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad
A lot will depend on the mindset of the Atletico players who now have the Champions League on their mind, but they are unbeaten in fifteen and winning becomes a habit. Two very strong stats in this fixture is that there has been no draw in the last fifteen overall head to head and Atletico have won the last six at home by 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 4-0. Not good news for Sociedad who desperately need three points to maintain their Europa League spot. They have to assume Getafe will get three points, so they need to win, but that is far from likely as odds of 4.50 suggest. I think this game requires a look at the teams when they are announced, if Atletico play their best team, I don’t think they will lose. Perhaps Under 2.5 goals might be the way forward here, but the bookies have that covered. Kit might be worth a small interest in Both Teams To Score at 2.10.
Levante v Getafe
Levante are safe but Getafe need points to qualify for Europe. Getafe have only won two of the last ten overall head to head with five of the last six head to head at Levante ending in draws. Getafe are not in form and a trading chance is taking on Laying them at 1.70 which is shocking value.
Villarreal v Eibar
Not a fixture with strong stats, but Eibar have won only one in five visits to Villarreal with three wins for the home team. With Eibar safe, Villarreal should win but a point will probably be enough. The two sides might enjoy themselves with the pressure off, so a tentative trade on Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is the call.
Espanyol v Celta Vigo
The last four head to head and five of the last six meetings ended in draws. The last three games were 1-1. In Espanyol the four most recent head to head ended 1-1, 2-1, 0-2 and 1-1. Espanyol are relegated and Celta must equal or better what Leganes do. With Real champions Leganes might get three points against them so Celta will probably need to win. The 1.67 on offer is probably the worst bet of the season, however many will steam into them as the “have to win”. One of the reasons it is shocking value is that if Real are beating Leganes, a draw will be enough. I much prefer to trade correct scores around 1-1 and 2-2.
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