La Liga continues to throw up some strange results and it would have been hard to predict recent results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, but it has made for an interesting campaign.
Friday 19th October 2018
Celta Vigo v Alaves
Celta followed three draws with a defeat at Sevilla and have not won in five games. Alaves are back on track with a 1-0 defeat of Real and have now won four of their last six. Celta are struggling to win games at home with three draws from four matches played but on the four recent head to head, the two in Vigo both ended 1-0. I think this looks like a draw and can see both teams scoring so perhaps a trade in the correct score market around 1-1 and 2-2 might pay dividends.
Saturday 20th October 2018
Real Madrid v Levante
We should try and keep this simple, Real are not playing well but should easily dispose of Levante however there are reasons to oppose the home side. Not just their current form, no win in three, but the fact that Levante drew both encounters last season means we must lay Real at around 1.16 for a small stake.
Villarreal v Atletico Madrid
Atletico do not enjoy this fixture, they have lost four and drawn two of the last six meetings, but they meet an out of form Villarreal side who have lost three of four at home this season. Atletico have hit form and are unbeaten in five but have lost the last three trips to Villarreal. Current form or past stats? The way the current La Liga season is going, Villarreal will probably win and at 3.80 are a little big but they will find this Atletico side tough to break down. I think the best call here is to Lay the Draw with a view to trading.
Barcelona v Sevilla
Top of the league Sevilla who have won their last four, visit an out of sorts Barcelona, but the home side will still be bankers for many based on their past record. The price of 1.36 is based on past performances not on their recent three draws from four games, and whilst they may win that price is no value and we can find better value elsewhere. In the last twelve head to head all twelve were Over 2.5 goals and in eleven of the twelve both teams scored. The last four Sevilla games were Over and in five of the last six Barcelona games both teams scored. The Over 2.5 goals is around 1.30 but if you can get 1.50 about both teams to score, that looks the best option.
Eibar v Athletic Bilbao
A tough game to call as it is a local derby, but Bilbao have a good record at the Ipurua with three wins from four visits all by 1-0. All four meetings in Eibar were Under 2.5 goals and that looks an obvious starting point but the price of 1.61 is about right. We could consider backing Athletic at 2.70 based on their good record here but they have drawn four of their last six so perhaps a Lay of Eibar to small stakes as a trading position is the way to go.
Sunday 21st October 2018
Real Betis v Valladolid
Betis lost 1-0 at Atletico after a six-match unbeaten run but they dominated that game possession wise and not many do that against Atleti. Their problem has been scoring goals and with a home fixture here, they need to turn that domination into goals and points. Valladolid are no mugs and are unbeaten in four with three wins and they have not lost on the road this season. In four recent meetings, there were two draws and two Betis wins with three of those four being Under 2.5 goals. I like Betis to win but 1.61 offers no value so in the hope that they find their scoring boots, I think a small trade on Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 could pay dividends.