Saturday 16th September
Levante v Valencia
Valencia were cancelled out by Atletico last weekend but on the whole have played well so far. Levante are unbeaten and got a great point at Real Madrid last week. This is a local derby and tends to be tight, in the last eight head to head; there have been seven home wins and one draw. In Levante the scores have been 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0 in recent seasons, suggesting they really get up for this game. Those stats suggest the home side may be a bit of value at 3.10 (21/10) however Valencia seem to be much improved this season and I Would rather leave the game alone.
Getafe v Barcelona
Anyone who saw Barcelona tear Juventus apart in the ten minutes before and after half time this week, will see no other result than an away win. The stats will back that up, Barcelona are unbeaten and have not conceded whilst Getafe have four hard earned points from a win and a draw. In the last ten meetings, Barca have won seven, drawn two and lost one, including three of the last five in Getafe. Seven of those ten games were Over 2.5 goals and the special market Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals looks the obvious option but is priced around 1.60 (3/5) and will not be everybody’s cup of tea. Barcelona to win to Nil at 2.30 (13/10) is more a working man’s price and probably offers better value.
Atletico Madrid v Malaga
Welcome to the new Wanda Metropolitano stadium, the new 68,000 stadium for Atletico Madrid. They will want to start with a bang and couldn’t have chosen a better opponent for their first game there. Atleti have had three away games to start with while they were waiting on completion of the stadium and managed two draws and a win whilst visitors Malaga have lost all three without scoring. A banker Atletico win provided they can adapt quickly to their new surroundings, which isn’t always the case with new grounds. They have won six and drawn three of the last ten meetings and at home the scores were 4-2, 1-0, 3-1, 1-1, 2-1 and 2-1. The safest option is probably to play Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 (5/6).
Sunday 17th September
Real Sociedad v Real Madrid
Both sides remain unbeaten, Sociedad winning all three and Madrid winning one with two draws. Real have won the last five meetings by fourteen goals to two and Sociedad have tended to struggle in this fixture, Madrid have won twelve of the last fourteen. This may be their chance though as Real have hardly set the world on fire so far this season and still have Ronaldo missing following his red card. Odds of 4.60 (18/5) on Real Sociedad are insulting to a team in their current form and it is certainly worth chancing a small bet on that with a view to trading out at some point
Alaves v Villarreal
Villarreal had been disappointing this season until they demolished Betis last Sunday after going behind to an early goal. Alaves won both fixtures last season by 2-1 at home and 2-0 away but have lost all three this season and failed to score. Villarreal must be the call but as they are negative away from home they are a risky proposition at 2.50 (6/4). I am tempted by Under 2.5 goals but it is a market I do not play and certainly not at 1.57 (4/7). Try laying Over 2.5 goals before kick-off and hope for a goalless thirty minutes and trade out for a profit.