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The English Championship season starts this Friday with two fixtures, with a full set of games completed on Saturday and Sunday. We kick off with relegated Sunderland taking on Derby and both will have high expectations this season. It is a game I will leave alone as Derby have not won in their last eleven visits to Sunderland , their last win being in 1990. With so much uncertainty about both squads it is easy to pass over. Nottingham Forest host Millwall and the only relevant stat I could find was that in the last eight meetings today, there have been no home wins. If that is a strong enough statistic for you to lay Forest, at around 10/11 (1.91), then go ahead. I will leave it alone. It is always better to be cautious early on in the season as players bed into new teams and managers, often new, try out new systems and formations. Watch as much as you can and read reports and keep any notes that may be relevant to trading, if you read that a side lost 1-0 but should have won four or five one, that is important in the context of their next few games.
This week the most relevant stat I could find may well be worth getting involved in.
Bristol City v Barnsley
There is an amazing propensity for goals in this fixture. In the last twelve head to head, including two in League One, ten have gone Over 2.5 goals, nine of those have gone Over 3.5 goals and six Over 4.5 goals. It seems that this may be a game worth chancing, even on the first day of the season. Both sides finished in the bottom half last season but were the two highest scorers in that group f teams and I can see no reason why this will not have goals again. We can try two bets on this game doing Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals and if we get three goals we have a free bet on another goal.
1pt win Over 2.5 goals @1.80
0.5pt win Over 3.5 goals @3.00
Of the other games, Fulham v Norwich looks like it should see goals, three of the last four meetings today have gone Over 2.5 goals and for those of you who like to bet Under goals, the stats point to QPR v Reading where seven of the last eight were Under 2.5 goals and that is priced at 1.80. For those of you new to my trading focus articles, I advise on here what I think will happen, if you are a trader it is up to you when to trader it is up to you when to trade out. An example above, if Bristol City v Barnsley is 1-1 after ten minutes, some of you will stay in and some will trade out, that has to be your own decision but stay consistent, don’t chop and change from one week to the next, set your parameters and stick to them. The other thing to know is that I never trade Unders. I will post on here when stats suggest but I will not do them myself. The reason being, in doing Overs, you still have a chance if it is 0-0 with ten minutes left, if you are on Unders your bet/trade is never a winner until the final whistle. That is a personal point of view and clearly your choice as there is no harm in playing Unders with a view to trading out say at 60 minutes, again your choice.
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