An excellent start last week and we were justified in keeping our powder dry. Three early goals ensured our trade was never under pressure and the late goal was the icing on the cake. I have studied this week’s fixtures and there are some with no angle and a couple with very little angle but we do have a couple of decent stats that may be worth playing.
Saturday 12th August
Barnsley v Ipswich is a fixture that doesn’t really inspire but we had a winning trade last season in this game and it might also be worth trying the same again this time around. The head to head between the two shows a remarkable stat in that in the last nine meetings, five of the games have ended 1-1, three of the last five played in Barnsley ended 1-1. Clearly we cannot consider the correct score of 1-1 as a great trade but the fact that the two have drawn five of the last six meetings is a pointer leaning us toward the draw. One other outstanding stat for these two is that nine of the last ten meetings have seen both teams score. It all points to 1-1 again whatever way we look. So we have a number of options and it really is down to how risk averse you are. The safest option is probably to go with both teams to score or if you fancy being a little more speculative then add the draw. For those who believe lightening will strike again try the 1-1 or do all three as suggested meaning we cover our stake if both teams score.
1pt win Both Teams To Score 4/5 (1.80)
0.5pt win The Draw 9/4 (3.25)
0.25pt win 1-1 Correct Score 6/1 (7.00)
Birmingham v Bristol City is another fixture that we looked at last season where a stat jumped out and was successful again. Bristol City have not won against Birmingham in thirteen attempts and despite probably being the better side last season, Bristol City lost both games 1-0. Is this a strong enough stat to get involved? Birmingham will be solid under Redknapp and lost their opening match at Ipswich by 1-0 whilst Bristol City carried on from where they left off last season and in their pre-season friendlies, by scoring three against Barnsley in a comfortable win. Laying Bristol City at around 2/1 (3.00) is a little risky in just the second game of the season and I will pass this time around.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest is a game that should have goals and recent meetings between the two suggest that too. Five of the six recent meetings have gone Over 2.5 goals with Forest not winning any of the six, drawing one and losing five. You may be tempted to bet Brentford on the past record but there has been money for them already and they seem a little short to me. I prefer to go with the goals option as a safer bet.
0.5pt win Over 2.5 goals Brentford v Nottingham Forest 8/11 (1.73)
Derby v Wolves is probably the pick of the weekend matches but Wolves haven’t beaten Derby away in the last four attempts so those who fancy the big spenders to win, be careful. The fixture has seen goals with five of the last six head to head Over 2.5 goals and four of those six were Over 3.5 goals.
0.5pt win Over 2.5 goals Derby v Wolves 11/8 (2.38)
Of the other fixtures, Leeds should beat Preston as they have not lost in five meetings since Preston thumped them 6-4 at Elland Road in 2010. In the Reading v Fulham fixture, there has not been an away win in the last eight head to head. Reading got the better of Fulham in a two way play-off at the end of last season and this is too close to call. One other strange stat that cropped up was in the Sheff Wed v QPR game, in the last sixteen meetings between the two, there has only once been more than one goal in it. How that would equate to trading the game I am not sure but it suggests all games are close so maybe that is an angle for trading in-play correct scores.