It’s another big test for England this Tuesday night as the Three Lions welcome the second best team in the World (based on the Fifa Rankings) – Brazil – to Wembley.
Gareth Southgate’s much-changed side, however, did a decent job against Germany last Friday night and would have gained a lot of confidence from that 0-0 draw.
England introduced a lot of young players to face the current World Champions and they certainly didn’t disgrace. Chelsea’s Ruben Loftus-Cheek was one of the names to impress, as did Tottenham’s full-back Kieran Trippier and goalie Jack Pickford.
We can expect much of the same from England here, but Southgate may tinker a bit with the side, with Gary Cahill being recalled to replace injured Phil Jones, while they are still without Harry Kane, who is injured.
Brazil, with the likes of Neymar and Gabriel Jesus, will provide England with a similar test to Germany and being both of their recent opponents will be well-fancied for the World Cup next summer then it will give Southgate a nice guide as to where England currently sit in the global football stage.
So, what does the match betting say?
Despite having home advantage England head into the match as the underdogs and are around 4.20 in the match betting , with the draw 3.75 and Brazil the clear favourites at 1.80.
It was back in 2013 when the sides last met and with that one ending 2-2 then I’m sure the Wembley crowd will take more of the same on Tuesday night – a repeat of that score can be backed around 15.00.
The overall head-to-head record sees Brazil having the clear upper-hand though with 11 wins to England’s 4, with 10 draws from the 25 times they’ve met.
However, the Three Lions have avoided defeat in their last two vs the Samba men and have managed to score in 5 of their last 6 against the former World Champions. Add in that England are unbeaten in their last 10 home games then the 2.05 on England/Draw in the ‘Double Chance’ market certainly catches the eye.
Other options when looking at the stats are for both teams to score as this has paid out in 5 of the last 6 times these sides have met, but a word of caution in this market as both teams DIDN’T score in 6 of Brazil’s last 8 and also in 4 of England’s last 5.
Southgate and co seem to have got things sussed at the back at the moment too as they’ve only conceded 1 goal in their last five games and shutting the Germans out last Friday was another good advert for their improved defensive skills.
Team news will of course be important when it comes to the scoring markets, but it’s interesting that you have to go passed 8 Brazilian players in the market to find the first England man – Jamie Vardy, who is around 9.00 to net the opener and 3.60 anytime.
Man City’s Gabriel Jesus, who has netted three times in his last two games for Brazil leads the way with PSG star Neymar – both can be backed at 4.50 to grab the opener, or 2.05 at anytime – which looks fair value to me.
Marcus Rashford, who came off the bench against Germany, is likely to figure for longer this time with a possible start so he’s another player to note, while much of the talk after the last game surrounded Chelsea’s Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who can also be expected to play a leading role again.
So, many options in what looks a ‘must-see’ game that might tell us if the current World Cup outright prices of Brazil 6.00 and England 21.00 are right or wrong, but the call here is for another solid England display.
As mentioned, the Three Lions have not lost at home in their last 10 now and caught the eye last Friday against one of the best sides in the world. Yes, Brazil also head into the game with a similar unbeaten record on their road and will provide test the England defenders with many goal threats, but I can’t help going back to the 2.05 on offer on England/Draw in the ‘Double Chance’ market – we’ll just need England to avoid defeat to collect here!
JUICESTORM VERDICT: ENGLAND/DRAW ‘DOUBLE CHANCE’ @2.05
England v Brazil 20:00, ITV
- Last met June 2013, Brazil 2-2 England
- Played 25 times, England 4, Draw 10, Brazil 11
- FIFA RANKINGS: England 12, Brazil 2
- England have not lost in their last 2 vs Brazil
- England have scored in 5 of their last 6 vs Brazil
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads
- 3 draws in the last 6 head-to-heads
- The last 2 head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
- Both teams scored in the last 5 head-to-heads England were at Home
- England’s last 3 games went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- England have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 games
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 4 of England’s last 5 games
- England are unbeaten in their last 10 home games
- 3 of Brazil’s last 5 games went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 6 of Brazil’s last 8 games
- Gabriel Jesus has scored 3 goals in his last 2 Brazil games
- Brazil have drawn 2 of their last 4 games
- Brazil have not lost in their last 8 away games