Ecuador v Chile 22nd June
This game should have goals with four of the last five head to head going Over 2.5 goals. Chile won three of those with Ecuador the other two. Ecuador have been poor in recent games and have not won in five, failing to score in three of those and they managed only one worthwhile shot in the game against Uruguay. Chile beat Japan easily, but the scoreline did flatter them a little with two late goals making it look like a rout. They have lost just once in the last five games, to Mexico, and they should be too strong here and clinch their quarter final place. I think 1.80 is a fair price to win the game and we could trade for our stake back if they lead. First goalscorer is interesting with Alexis Sanchez as favourite, but in much better form is Eduardo Vargas who is available at 5/1.
Brazil v Peru 22nd June
The winner of this will top the group so added incentive for Peru who came from behind to beat Bolivia 3-1 and they will take heart from the fact that Venezuela managed to hold Brazil to a 0-0 draw. Peru beat Brazil in the last Copa America to top that group but that is the only time that they have beaten the hosts in eleven attempts where they managed three draws. A draw isn’t beyond the realms of possibilities here as it would suit both sides, but Brazil need to get the fans onside after recent average performances. I would keep stakes sensible and prefer to trade Brazil to win 2-0 and 2-1 with a view to getting a green book at some point during the game.
Bolivia v Venezuela 22nd June
Can Venezuela grab their first goal? Following two 0-0 draws, they know that a win here will see them through and that last time the two met, Venezuela thrashed Bolivia 5-0. Venezuela had score in the eleven previous games so can find the net and the last four head to head saw Over 3.5 goals. Bolivia have struggled and lost their last five games with only a penalty to their name in those matches and they have now failed to win in nine. Venezuela should win but it’s difficult to work out whether they will settle for a 1-0 win or really go for it. With Bolivia being poor, I’m more inclined to go with goals and Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 looks a fair way to go.
Qatar v Argentina 23rd June
Just the one previous meeting in a friendly fifteen years ago which bears no relevance to this fixture, where Argentina won easily. Qatar have acquitted themselves far better than many predicted and are probably now one of the top Asian sides, with recent victories over both South Korea and Japan. Argentina need the three points after losing to Colombia and drawing with Paraguay, if they are to go further in this competition. Messi has not really sparkled an it looks like many of the squad have had tough long seasons in their domestic leagues and that has been reflected in their play so far. Although Argentina should win this, there is no way we can be contemplating backing them at 1.36 in their current form, but it is hard to get away from the fact that they are very likely to win. I think a better bet is for Argentina to win to Nil at 2.05 as they could settle for a 1-0 win or if they do control the game, they are unlikely to concede. Keep stakes to a sensible level as these games are fraught with danger.
Colombia v Paraguay 23rd June
Colombia have lost one in ten, Paraguay won one in ten, so Colombia are overwhelming favourites here. In the last eleven meetings, there has been no draw so Lay the draw is an option, but with Colombia winning five of the last six head to head, it is hard to look past them. There should be goals in this game and that is available at 2.10 but the worrying thing about this game is the rumours that Colombia may “let Paraguay win” as this could put Argentina out of the competition, and they have already qualified. That is dangerous as Argentina could still go through as a best third placed side and I prefer to bet on the most likely result. Yes, Colombia may rest players, but their bench players are still decent, and it is difficult to see Paraguay winning. I prefer the correct score trading option of 1-1 and 0-1 which should give us plenty of opportunities to get a green book.
Chile v Uruguay 24th June
If ever a game had a draw written all over it, this is the game. Uruguay are unbeaten in five matches and Chile have lost just once in five. A draw would suit both sides and ensure qualification for the two of them. In recent head to heads, there has been no draw in the last six games where four of those games have gone Over 2.5 goals. I really think that unless one team gets on top early on, then both will settle for a point, so we have no other real option than to bet the draw at 3.30 and hopefully trade out later in the game for a profit.
Ecuador v Japan 24th June
Only one irrelevant meeting between the two which was thirteen years ago and almost certainly counts for nothing in the context of this game. Japan are a better team than the current Ecuador side and have a real chance of qualifying here with a victory. Ecuado rhave not won in five whilst Japan have lost only once in their last five games so they really should take control and unless I have read this completely wrong, Japan are much higher ranked than Ecuador, then the 3.50 available has to be worth an interest with a view to trading for your stake back if they score first.
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