Tuesday 7th July 2020
Nottm Forest v Fulham
How will Forest react to the last-minute equaliser against them at the weekend, when they thought they had secured three points? They need to bounce back quickly and will not want to lose against one of their rivals for promotion. Fulham themselves grabbed an injury time winner at home to Birmingham where their second half pressure paid off. In nine recent head to head, seven were Over 2.5 goals, with four wins apiece. This game could go either way so Over 2.5 goals is probably the best call here at 2.20, as a trading angle.
Nottm Forest 41% Over 2.5 goals 22% Over 3.5 goals
Fulham 46% Over 2.5 goals 15% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Forest have won two and drawn two, three of the four games were Under 2.5 goals. Fulham have had two games Under and two Over, with two wins and two losses.
Brentford v Charlton
Brentford will push Leeds and West Brom all the way and are arguably playing the best of the three at present. This is a winnable fixture so they must avoid a silly slip up. In five recent head to head, Charlton won three with one draw. Three of the five games were Over and the two games at Brentford ended 1-2 and 1-1. The stats give Charlton a chance, but on this seasons and on current form, there is only one winner and Brentford at 1.30 will be bankers for many. Probably not a game to go in heavy on, as Brentford will just want to get it done so just for an interest, -1 on the handicap at 1.83 seems fair.
Brentford 49% Over 2.5 goals 29% Over 3.5 goals
Charlton 54% Over 2.5 goals 32% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart, Brentford have won all four and are pushing for automatic promotion, two games were Under and two Over. Charlton have won two, drawn one and lost one, all four games Under 2.5 goals.
Wednesday 8th July 2020
West Brom v Derby
A last-minute equaliser against local rivals Nottm Forest may have stopped Derby’s winning run, but they could still have a say in the playoffs. West Brom will see this home game as a big chance to close in on promotion. Only three recent head to head which Derby have had the better of, two wins and a draw. Both teams have scored in all three and two of the three were Over. This promises to be a fascinating clash, West Brom should win at home and 1.80 is a fair price and that is the same price as Over 2.5 goals which is also a consideration. I think a better option might be Both Teams To Score at 1.73 as a 1-1 draw would not be a huge surprise.
West Brom 44% Over 2.5 goals 27% Over 3.5 goals
Derby 51% Over 2.5 goals 24% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart West Brom have won two, drawn one and lost one. Derby have won three and drawn one, both teams have had two games Under and two Over.
Sheff Wed v Preston
Preston have been lacklustre of late and put in a poor performance at Huddersfield. Sheff Wed were also off their game at Swansea. Surely one of these two can put in a performance. Nine recent head to head have seen five Over and four Under. Three of the last four overall head to head were Over 2.5 goals. Wednesday have won the last four meetings at home, 1-0, 4-1, 2-1 and 3-1. Preston are not big enough to chance at 3.10 so goals looks the best angle here with Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 the trading option.
Sheff Wed 51% Over 2.5 goals 24% Over 3.5 goals
Preston 41% Over 2.5 goals 22% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Preston have failed to win with two draws and two defeats, three of the four games were Under 2.5 goals. Wednesday have won one drawn one and lost two, with three of the four Over 2.5 goals.
Thursday 9th July 2020
Leeds v Stoke
Leeds march on to the Premier League and they bounced back after their home draw against Luton with an impressive win at Blackburn. Only three recent head to head, Leeds won two and Stoke one, all three games were Over 2.5 goals with the game at Leeds ending 3-1. Stoke hammered Barnsley 4-0 and still need points in their relegation fight, but will they be able to stop Leeds? Leeds are 1.50 to win which even for them is short enough. Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 is also an option, but I think Stoke can nick a goal so the 2.10 about Both Teams To Score is maybe the way to go.
Leeds 32% Over 2.5 goals 17% Over 3.5 goals
Stoke 56% Over 2.5 goals 29% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Leeds have won two, drawn one and lost one with Stoke winning one, drawing one and losing two. Both have had two games Under and two Over.
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