Saturday 4th July 2020
Derby v Nottm Forest
An East Midlands derby and a lot at stake with possible play off places to fight for. Forest won 1-0 at home back in November and that fits the pattern of close games, the last five head to head were Under 2.5 goals. Derby have the better recent record at home, they have won three and drawn one of the last four, with Forest failing to score. Derby are on a good run, winning their last four (before midweek game) and Forest have lost only one in seven. Neither can afford to lose, I just have a feeling Forest might nick it so the 3.10 is interesting, but a trading Lay of Derby at 2.30 keeps the draw on our side.
Derby 54% Over 2.5 goals 26% Over 3.5 goals
Nottm Forest 44% Over 2.5 goals 23% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Derby have won both games and both were Over. Forest won one and drawn one, one Under one Over.
Blackburn v Leeds
Leeds continue to march on and in the twelve recent meetings between these two, none ended in draws. The four recent head to head at Blackburn all ended 2-1, two to Blackburn and two to Leeds. The last four overall head to head were all Over 2.5 goals. The stats suggest goals, but Leeds did not fire on all cylinders against Luton and they may be a little more cautious in their approach here. That said both sides need to win as Blackburn lost at Barnsley, their third loss in four. Leeds have to win and that adds pressure, so 1.70 away from home can hardly be seen as value. Try both teams to score at 1.91 if you need to have an interest.
Blackburn 50% Over 2.5 goals 25% Over 3.5 goals
Leeds 30% Over 2.5 goals 15% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Blackburn have lost both games, both Under and Leeds have won one drawn one and lost one, one Over and two Under.
Brentford v Wigan
Not a huge number of stats to go on, but Brentford do better in the home games. In the seven recent head to head, four were Under and three Over. In Brentford the games ended in 2-0, 0-0 and 3-0 so Wigan struggle to score. Brentford might now believe they can catch the top two having won four on the bounce. Wigan are unbeaten in nine but have problems off the pitch and that may have an effect. Go with goals for two in form teams and at 1.91 for Over 2.5 goals, that will do as a trade.
Brentford 48% Over 2.5 goals 30% Over 3.5 goals
Wigan 48% Over 2.5 goals 22% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart both sides have won all three to Nil, with one Over and two Under.
Fulham v Birmingham
Birmingham have won on two of their last three visits to Fulham. Fulham have won two of the last three overall head to head. Nine recent meetings saw six Under and three Over. Fulham need to keep up the pressure on the three above them and Birmingham need a few more points to be safe. Both teams to score at 1.80 looks reasonable if you must play here.
Fulham 48% Over 2.5 goals 15% Over 3.5 goals
Birmingham 49% Over 2.5 goals 28% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Fulham have won one and lost two, two Over one Under and Birmingham have drawn both games, one Under one Over.
Sunday 5th July 2020
Swansea v Sheff Wed
Three recent head to head at this level with one win each and a draw. Swansea won the game at home by 2-1 and this looks like being close too. Swansea were poor against Millwall in the week and Wednesday might fancy this. Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 as a trading option might be the way to go despite the game being close, it could produce goals.
Swansea 48% Over 2.5 goals 25% Over 3.5 goals
Sheff Wed 49% Over 2.5 goals 26% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Swansea have won one drawn one and lost one, two Under and one Over with Sheff Wed one draw and one win, one Under and one Over 2.5 goals.
West Brom v Hull
Only three recent meetings with two wins for West Brom and one for Hull. The game at The Hawthorns ended 3-2, the other two games were Under. I have a feeling that West Brom might cut loose soon and this might be the day. So, a fair option looks to be -1 on the handicap at 2.00 or Over 3.5 goals at 2.50, with slight preference for the former.
West Brom 41% Over 2.5 goals 26% Over 3.5 goals
Hull 64% Over 2.5 goals 33% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart West Brom have lost one and drawn one, both Under and they have yet to score. Hill got a 3-3 draw at Birmingham but lost the other game 1-0.
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