Note: (Written 24th December – These stats do not include games played the weekend before Boxing Day and prices not generally available at the time of writing)
This is a busy period for English football with three games in a week so beware we can get some strange results as fatigue can affect some sides more than others.
Tuesday 1st January 2019
Aston Villa v QPR
Five recent meetings have seen three away wins, with three Villa wins and two for Rangers. QPR seem to save their best for the bigger teams so it is no foregone conclusion that Villa will win, and I prefer both teams to score as a trading/betting option or you could Lay the Draw.
Derby v Middlesbrough
Not a lot of relevant stats here but Middlesbrough have won here on two of their last three visits and three of the last six head to head were also away wins. As with recent weeks, we will chance a small Lay of Derby with a view to trading.
Brentford v Norwich
Norwich have had the better of this fixture in recent times winning four and drawing one of the last seven meetings, and they have won on two of their last three visits. Brentford have struggled recently and Norwich to win is the call.
Blackburn v West Brom
Only one recent meeting between these two at this level, earlier in the season, which ended 1-1. West Brom have found some consistency again, particularly on the road and I can see them grinding out a result here.
Hull v Bolton
In five recent head to head, four have ended by a 1-0 scoreline, two wins apiece. Unders therefore, looks the obvious call and the style of play for both sides also leads me to that conclusion. The downside is that recent Hull games have seen goals, but the percentage call is Unders.
Ipswich v Millwall
This is the kind of fixture that Ipswich need, one where they have a good record, three wins and a draw in the last four head to head at Portman Road. With three of the last four overall head to head being Over, there could be goals and Over 2.5 goals has to be the shout here.
Nottm Forest v Leeds
Two quite strong stats here, five draws on the last ten meetings including two of the last four head to head in Nottingham and nine of the last ten head to head have been Under 2.5 goals. Try trading correct scores around 1-0 and 1-1.
Reading v Swansea
The one meeting in recent seasons was back in October with Swansea winning 2-0 at home. Two inconsistent teams and if you must get involved it might be worth a small stake on Reading at a decent price, with a view to trading.
Rotherham v Preston
Only five recent meetings in the Championship with two wins for Preston and three draws. Preston should prove too strong on recent form, provided the hectic schedule hasn’t affected them. Preston to win.
Sheff Wed v Birmingham
A game where the stats suggest that there will be goals with six of the last seven meetings ending Over 2.5 goals. The recent games in Sheffield have ended 1-3, 3-0, 3-0, 0-0 and 4-1. Try Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals as trading angles.
Stoke v Bristol City
The two have one recent meeting, in October, where Stoke won 1-0 away, despite Bristol having much the better of the game. Bristol have an ability to frustrate sides, especially away from home and Stoke will find this tough. A small Lay of the home side as a trading option is a fair option here.
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