Championship Trading Focus: 14th July-15th July 2020

Championship Football Betting Guide

Tuesday 14th July 2020

 

Cardiff v Derby

 

Last chance saloon for Derby who must win, a draw will not be enough. Despite a great recent run, the last two games have shown that at present there are better teams around and Brentford may have finally finished off their playoff hopes. Whilst it is still mathematically possible, they must go for the win, and that may help Cardiff. Both teams have lost their last two as the pressure mount and home advantage may be the difference, although Derby have won two and drawn one of their last four visits. Cardiff have won only one of their last seven home games so 2.25 seems a little short. With a win vital, perhaps Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 is the best trading angle.

 

Cardiff 49% Over 2.5 goals   30% Over 3.5 goals

Derby 51% Over 2.5 goals   26% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Cardiff and Derby have won three drawn one and lost two. Two of Cardiff’s games and three of Derby’s were Over 2.5 goals.

 

Brentford v Preston

 

Brentford could be very unlucky this season as they are on fire, winning their last seven and losing just one in fourteen, to Luton of all teams, and they may still miss out on automatic promotion. Preston have slipped up and have got back on track slightly with two draws in their last three games. Brentford in their current form could beat anyone and have won three of the last four head to head at home. Seven of the last nine meetings have been Over 2.5 goals, so that looks the best way to go and the 1.80 about that is a fair price.

 

Brentford 51% Over 2.5 goals   30% Over 3.5 goals

Preston 42% Over 2.5 goals   23% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Brentford have won all six with four games Over 2.5 goals. Preston have won one drawn three and lost two with two of the six games Over 2.5 goals.

 

West Brom v Fulham

 

Only one recent meeting, a 1-1 draw in September and West Brom have to bounce back from a draw at Blackburn, with Brentford breathing down their necks. This is a tough one as Fulham can also still qualify for automatic promotion, although unlikely, and they have won their last four, conceding just one goal. The West Brom who tore apart Derby will win this, but if they are not “right on it” then Fulham will fancy at least a draw. With so much at stake, the pressure will be immense, and I’m tempted to go with a Lay of the home side. On reflection, Both teams to score at 1.80 is a better option.

 

West Brom 42% Over 2.5 goals   26% Over 3.5 goals

Fulham 44% Over 2.5 goals   14% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart West Brom have won three drawn two and lost one, Fulham have won four and lost two. Both have been Over 2.5 goals in two of their six games.

 

 

Wednesday 15th July 2020

 

Leeds v Barnsley

 

Leeds are closing in on the title and once again scored a late winner against Swansea. They go until the end and that is why they will probably win the league. Barnsley will need seven points from their last three games if they are to escape and that means at least a draw here. Leeds have won five of the last six meetings, and at Elland Road the scores were 2-1, 2-1, 0-0 and 1-0. An early goal and Leeds could run away with this, but Barnsley have lost just one in six and are battling. Leeds have won three of their last four home games to nil so we will chance that again at 2.25.

 

Leeds 33% Over 2.5 goals   19% Over 3.5 goals

Barnsley 47% Over 2.5 goals   30% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Leeds have powered on winning four drawing one and losing one. Three of their six games were Over 2.5 goals. Barnsley have played well, winning two drawing three and losing just once. Only one of their six games went Over 2.5 goals.

 

 

Nottm Forest v Swansea

 

Forest probably need a win to guarantee a playoff place, but Swansea are one of the sides chasing them down. This game feels like a draw with Swansea better on the road recently and a point for Forest not being a disaster. Three recent head to head, Forest won two and a draw, with two games Under 2.5 goals, but the game in Nottingham ending 2-1. Forest have lost two of their last four home games, Swansea are unbeaten in four away. This might be a game to trade correct scores around 1-1 and 2-2.

 

Nottm Forest 40% Over 2.5 goals   21% Over 3.5 goals

Swansea 49% Over 2.5 goals   26% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since the restart Forest have won two drawn three and lost one, with just one of the six games Over. Swansea have won three drawn one and lost two, three of their six games were Over.

 

Preston v Nottm Forest

 

Another promotion battle and both have been in and out recently. Usually a tight encounter, five of the last seven head to head ended in draws, four of them were 1-1, the other two were wins for Preston. I can see goals here particularly if we get an early one and as a trading option, Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 fits the bill.

 

Preston 62% Over 2.5 goals   33% Over 3.5 goals

Nottm Forest 38% Over 2.5 goals   19% Over 3.5 goals

 

Since football resumed, Preston have won one lost two and drawn two with two games Over 2.5 goals. Forest have won two drawn two and lost one. Just one of their five games was Over 2.5 goals.

 

 

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