Saturday 11th May 2019
Aston Villa v West Brom
West Brom have had the better of the two meetings this season with a win at Villa Park and a 2-2 draw at home with a last-minute equaliser. These are the only two meetings at this level with all previous head to head being in the top flight. The six most recent league meetings at Villa Park have seen three away wins with two wins for Villa and one draw. Villa have been in red hot form before a draw at Leeds and a loss at home to Norwich, but both of those have finished top three and Villa were already assured of their play-off spot. West Brom lost at Derby last week but had previously been unbeaten in four, albeit not playing at their best. Aston Villa appear a little short to me at 2.10 even with home advantage. West Brom might be worth chancing to small stakes at 3.60 with a view to trading if they lead.
Derby v Leeds
Will “Spygate” come back to haunt Bielsa? Apparently, he knows how to stop Derby, so this should be straightforward for them and they did win both games this season. These are two clubs who have been away from the top flight for too long, but something will have to give here over two legs. The last ten games between the two, at this level at Pride Park, ended in seven home wins, two away wins and just one draw. The most likely scenario here is a tight game with neither wanting to lose the tie in the first match. Derby have lost just one in their last fourteen home games, so Leeds will need to be at their best and a draw seems the most obvious play here so try correct score trading around 1-1 and 2-2 with a view to greening up at some point during the game.
Note: Odds are subject to change.
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