Wednesday 29th July 2020
Brentford v Swansea
Swansea looked good in the first leg, Brentford looked tired and need an injection of energy to help them turn this around. A lot will depend on whether Rico Henry has his red card rescinded as this would give Brentford a huge boost. The four previous Championship meetings, before the first leg, all saw goals and with the tie on a knife edge, I think this game might open up. There were 26 shots in the first leg, 10 of those were on target so we could easily get an early goal. Brentford played nearly half an hour with 10 men and defended well, but here they will need to get on the front foot straight away. In the regular season they scored more goals in the minutes 16-30, than any other team, 22 goals compared to the next best Derby with 13. Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 is the trading angle with a view to trading out at some point if we get the early goals.
Thursday 30th July 2020
Fulham v Cardiff
Fulham are firmly in the driving seat, but they only need to think back a year, to see what happened to Leeds who only needed to turn up to defeat Derby and failed. Head to head at Fulham, Cardiff have failed to win in five, with three draws, Fulham won the regular season fixture 2-0. Those who watched the first leg will have Fulham down as bankers, but even at around 2.00 on the exchanges, you always need to be wary about betting sides who do not need to win. Yes, it could prove to be real value as they are the stronger side, and I have a feeling if this was a league fixture, Fulham would be around 1.70. With a two-goal lead however, they may have one eye on the final and preserving a bit of energy, particularly if it is still level into the second half. That said, Fulham were by far the better team in Cardiff, and the home side looked short of ideas going forward. A 0-0 draw is a real player here, but I don’t like going down that route as 90 minutes is a long time, and an early goal for Cardiff could really open the game up. I prefer Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 as the trading angle with hopefully a quiet first half and trade out if you get into profit.
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